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It is time for Dabo Swinney to stop making the same risky bet every offseason

Dabo Swinney needs to stop testing the water's temperature with his feet and jump into the pool.
Dabo Swinney, Clemson Tigers
Dabo Swinney, Clemson Tigers | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Change is hard, and that is if you want to change. When it comes to Dabo Swinney, he has a certain way of doing things. He prefers to land his kind of guys out of high school, develop them, and hope they amount to something before they eventually turn pro. That used to work out wonderfully for his Clemson Tigers, but last season was a total referendum for him. So much talent, but so little results.

Slowly but surely, Swinney has come around to the idea of venturing into the transfer portal. However, he refuses to go after any quarterbacks who could help him today. After the Cade Klubnik era came and went, Clemson is stuck between a rock and a hard place heading into Week 1. It will be either an inexperienced Christopher Vizzina or a promising true freshman Tait Reynolds who will lead Clemson.

While Swinney usually has a keen eye on picking the right starting quarterbacks to lead his team, this one position group is not going to solve all of Clemson's problems. It needs the whole team to come together to help navigate the treacherous ACC, as well as a few big games in the non-conference. This is why so many members of the national media are having a difficult time buying into Clemson.

ESPN's Greg McElroy examined Swinney's roster-building blueprint, and pointed out its obvious flaws.

"His whole model is a bet that if you recruit and you develop, instead of going out and prioritizing the portal, the talent runs in cycles and eventually, you get to a point where you have a veteran-loaded roster, and you cash that roster in for a title run," McElroy said.

The old way of doing things for Swinney backfired in a big way last season for the Clemson program.

"2025 was supposed to be that cash-in year,' McElroy continued. "They had 17 returning starters, the most veteran roster in America, preseason top five, and yet it was the worst season in 15 years. So this bounce-back isn't just about wins. It's about whether or not Dabo's blueprint can still hold up in this era."

It played a part in McElroy saying previously that a long-running streak under Swinney will end soon. If last year's talent-laden team could not win 10 games, what would make him think this season's squad could get it done after so much upheaval? The coaching staff might be better, but other programs are getting better, faster by way of the portal. They will take on finished products, polish them up, and win.

Swinney can still build his roster through high school recruiting, but Clemson does need more variety.

Greg McElroy is right in that Dabo Swinney needs to use the portal more

At its core, Clemson might always be an insular program. When things are going well, this serves the Tigers. But when things are not, we end up experiencing a disappointing season like we did last fall. Simply put, Clemson has proven to be too steady of an operation for this degree of ebb and flow to be tolerated. Blue blood, new blood, however you want to define it, there is a high standard being set.

If we look across the upper echelon of the Power Four, there are many teams that regularly go into the transfer portal and land a star quarterback. At the top of the list are last year's national finalists. Indiana has had a new transfer portal quarterback start for the Hoosiers every year Curt Cignetti has been in Bloomington. Miami has also been incredibly portal-heavy when addressing this key position.

In short, if Vizzina or Reynolds play like a Tajh Boyd or better at Clemson, this could be a moot point. Swinney will have gone back to the well of recruiting quarterbacks strictly out of high school, and it will have worked out for him. Swinney can only hope they develop into a Deshaun Watson or a Trevor Lawrence. However, if this year's starter is at best a Cade Klubnik, then Clemson has a major problem.

While we should take McElroy's commentary with a grain of salt, there is some truth to his argument. When you zag when everybody else zigs, you need to make your efforts worthwhile. Clemson had its way of doing things under Swinney for the better part of two decades. It worked out for a while, until it did not. We have seen one transfer portal quarterback after another thrive with other programs lately.

Right now, Swinney is doubling down on the same risky bet he makes every offseason. He buys into his guys more so than he probably should. If the results are not there from your homegrown products, you need to venture outside of your garden to gather up the right ingredients you will need. New is not always better, but businesses that do not adapt eventually fail. So what does Swinney want to do?

If Swinney's annual gamble does not pan out, somebody else might need to call the recruiting shots.

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