Yes, Dabo Swinney's Clemson Tigers are a College Football Playoff contender entering this season. ESPN's Heather Dinich said it as much in her lengthy feature from Monday morning. Even though she only had Clemson ranked No. 29 out of 31 teams, the Tigers are still very much above the cut line for any potential playoff debates. Furthermore, she outlined a few things that Clemson will need to do.
The Tigers are coming off a painfully frustrating 2025 season, one where Clemson went 7-6 after starting the season out ranked inside the top five. They still ended up losing more players to the NFL Draft than ever before. It has turned some pundits off in terms of viewing this program in any positive light. Regardless, the floor is still quite high for this team, one that is not far away from a playoff berth.
So what we are going to do today is highlight the four most important factors in deciding if the Tigers have what it takes to make it back to the College Football Playoff for the second time in three years. The talent is there, as well as the coaching. Clemson does play a manageable ACC schedule, but will have some tough tests in the non-conference at LSU, and then at home versus South Carolina later.
Let's start with the biggest offseason concern Clemson has with its roster, and then go from there.
4. Choosing the right starting quarterback to lead this year's Tigers
Not until Dabo Swinney names a starter will this issue go away. Clemson is in the midst of a low-key quarterback battle between veteran Christopher Vizzina and freshman Tait Reynolds. With Swinney avoiding the transfer portal at all costs at the game's most important position, all that does is put more pressure on him to pick the right quarterback between these two. Thankfully, he usually does.
What is important to understand here is that even if this decision does impact Clemson's trajectory considerably, it may not amount to as many wins as one would think. In short, Swinney could make the right call, but it does not really move the needle. For Clemson to achieve all it can this season, the Tigers must really come together as a team. They have to play better across the board this campaign.
Picking the right quarterback to lead them is crucial, but it still may not decide Clemson's playoff fate.
3. Avoiding any unforgivable losses during the course of ACC play
No doubt about it, Clemson will need to avoid falling into the trap in a few of the Tigers' league games. The only way any inexcusable loss could be rectified is with a massive upset win. Essentially, Clemson losing at Syracuse in early November could only be counterbalanced with say, a home win over Miami within the context of ACC play. Clemson does not play the most difficult conference schedule this fall.
Not to say this year's team does not have any margin for error, but the chances of a mulligan being a part of the equation are probably not in the cards. However, it is still too early to really know what any potential losses could go down as good, bad, or downright ugly. The season will need to play itself out before being judged accordingly. It just goes to show losing to any pedestrian programs will not cut it.
In short, Clemson needs to win all the games it should during ACC play to avoid being disappointed.
2. Holding their own versus the two teams of note it faces out of the SEC
This is big. If Clemson wants any shot of making the College Football Playoff, it has to split the pair of SEC games it draws on the schedule. These games bookend the season, with Clemson opening at LSU in Week 1, before hosting arch-rival South Carolina at home in the Palmetto Bowl. Clemson going 2-0 in these games would be fantastic. While going 1-1 would be respectable, 0-2 would be an issue.
Because Clemson does not play the most arduous of ACC slates, it has to get a pelt or two on the wall from its non-conference schedule. While they do have four games outside of ACC play, the home dates with Georgia Southern and Charleston Southern will do nothing to get the Tigers back into the playoff. Simply put, Clemson is not going to be a playoff team without a win over either SEC program.
Beating LSU in Baton Rouge may be quite challenging, so just do not lose at home to South Carolina.
1. Reaching the ACC Championship Game with one league loss or fewer
As we fully get a grasp of what could be in store for Clemson this season, it all seems to be coming to this. The best shot for the Tigers to make it back into the playoffs would be as the ACC Champion. Whoever wins each Power Four league is guaranteed a spot in the playoffs, regardless of their record. While Clemson could conceivably make the field as an at-large team, it needs to make it to Charlotte.
In the event Clemson finishes the regular season with a 10-2 (7-1) record with the Tigers' only losses being at LSU and at home versus Miami, that should be more than good enough to reach the ACC Championship Game. Even if they were to lose to Miami, SMU, or Louisville in that conference title bout, the Tigers may still have a chance at making it in anyway. Just look at SMU from two years ago.
As long as Clemson wins seven ACC games and gets to Charlotte, the playoffs shall be within reach.
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