There is no way around it. The Clemson Tigers' College Football Playoff hopes will largely hinge on how well they perform in conference play. While they do draw LSU and South Carolina out of the SEC this year, Clemson cannot afford to mess around with its manageable ACC schedule. While the Tigers do have to play Miami, the ACC media still likes Clemson more than most of the teams in the league.
Here is how the ACC media voted on the projected order of finish. It has Clemson slotted in fourth.
- Miami Hurricanes: 3,159 points (165 first-place votes)
- SMU Mustangs: 2,794 points (6 first-place votes)
- Louisville Cardinals: 2,569 points (4 first-place votes)
- Clemson Tigers: 2,520 points (7 first-place votes)
- Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: 2,006 points (2 first-place votes)
- Virginia Cavaliers: 1,981 points
- North Carolina State Wolfpack: 1,964 points
- Virginia Tech Hokies: 1,962 points
- Pittsburgh Panthers: 1,740 points
- Duke Blue Devils: 1,439 points
- Florida State Seminoles: 1,439 points (3 first-place votes)
- California Golden Bears: 1,392 points
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons: 1,103 points
- Syracuse Orange: 878 points
- North Carolina Tar Heels: 831 points
- Boston College Eagles: 491 points
- Stanford Cardinal: 483 points (1 first-place vote)
For those who need a reminder of what all is to come, here is who Clemson will have to play this year.
Date | Opponent | Location | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
Sept. 5 | at LSU Tigers | Baton Rouge, LA | 7:30 p.m. ET |
Sept. 12 | Georgia Southern Eagles | Clemson, SC | 7:30 p.m. ET |
Sept. 19 | North Carolina Tar Heels | Clemson, SC | 12:00 p.m. ET |
Sept. 25 | at California Golden Bears | Berkeley, CA | 10:30 p.m. ET |
Oct. 3 | Miami Hurricanes | Clemson, SC | TBA ET |
Oct. 10 | BYE | ||
Oct. 17 | Charleston Southern Buccaneers | Clemson, SC | TBA ET |
Oct. 24 | Virginia Tech Hokies | Clemson, SC | TBA ET |
Oct. 31 | at Florida State Seminoles | Tallahassee, FL | TBA ET |
Nov. 7 | at Syracuse Orange | Syracuse, NY | TBA ET |
Nov. 14 | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets | Clemson, SC | TBA ET |
Nov. 20 | at Duke Blue Devils | Durham, NC | 7:30 p.m. ET |
Nov. 28 | South Carolina Gamecocks | Clemson, SC | TBA ET |
Dec. 5 | ACC Championship | Charlotte, NC | 12:00 p.m. ET |
If we were to remove all the ACC teams Clemson is not playing this fall, here is how the poll stacks up.
- No. 1 Miami Hurricanes: 3,159 points (165 first-place votes)
- No. 5 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: 2,006 points (2 first-place votes)
- No. 8 Virginia Tech Hokies: 1,962 points
- No. 10 Duke Blue Devils: 1,439 points
- No. 11 Florida State Seminoles: 1,439 points (3 first-place votes)
- No. 12 California Golden Bears: 1,392 points
- No. 14 Syracuse Orange: 878 points
- No. 15 North Carolina Tar Heels: 831 points
As you can see, Clemson only plays one of the top three ACC teams this fall. Not only do they avoid College Football Playoff contenders SMU and Louisville, but the Tigers get media favorite Miami at home. With the Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech games at home too, the most difficult road opponent Clemson might face this season is Duke. Nobody gave the defending ACC champs a first-place vote.
Essentially, there are multiple pathways into the playoffs now for Clemson. Assuming chalk prevails, Clemson could go 7-1 in ACC play and 2-0 vs. non-Power Four competition with home dates against Georgia Southern and Charleston Southern. As long as they split the SEC pair with LSU and South Carolina, we could be looking at a 10-2 (7-1) team going to Charlotte, and probably to the playoffs.
Of course, an unexpected loss could yield disastrous consequences for the team, just like last year.
Clemson's ACC schedule will make or break the Tigers playoff chances
While the Tigers still have to play Miami, that game comes early in the season and it is at home. This is one of the few spots on the Hurricanes' schedule where Mario Cristobal's team could get got. Could Clemson take advantage? We shall see. Even if they do not, it is imperative for the Tigers to not slip up in their other seven ACC games. Only Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech are seen as top-half teams.
Factor in that both of those games will be at home, and it could be a real problem should Clemson drop any others. This would include road dates at Duke, Florida State, Cal, and Syracuse. In theory, a road loss to any of them would not be out of the question. Couple that with a loss to either SEC team on the schedule and Miami at home, and that may keep the Tigers out of the playoff picture for good.
To wrap this up, Clemson's schedule is what it is. It has its highs and its lows. What is important to understand here is Clemson will need to pick up a few meaningful pelts on the wall to potentially offset an unexpected loss. While wins over LSU, Miami, or South Carolina would be swell, nothing is guaranteed. The fact Clemson does not get a crack at SMU or Louisville could be problematic, too.
Right now, Clemson should see this schedule as an opportunity, but one with little margin for error.
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