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With the loss to Louisville, Clemson's CFP hopes are on life support

If you're hoping for a miracle, you shouldn't hold your breath.

By Austin Farmer

Ohio State Buckeyes head coach Urban Meyer holds up the National Championship trophy after beating Oregon Ducks 42-20 in College Football Playoff Championship game at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas on January 12, 2015. (Dispatch photo by Kyle Robertson)
Ohio State Buckeyes head coach Urban Meyer holds up the National Championship trophy after beating Oregon Ducks 42-20 in College Football Playoff Championship game at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas on January 12, 2015. (Dispatch photo by Kyle Robertson) / Kyle Robertson / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
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Last night was a rough for the Clemson Nation. The Tigers took one to the chin against Louisville, losing 33-21. It hurt Clemson's odds of making the ACC championship, and it most likely dropped them in the AP Poll.

But in this new age of the expanded College Football Playoffs, all that matters is finding a way to make the playoffs. So, how does Clemson do that with the four games ahead of it? Short answer: they don't. At least not without some help.

In the eyes of the CFP committee, Clemson is a two-loss team with zero quality wins. You can call anti-ACC bias all you want, but the fact is, Clemson's had a straightforward schedule to this point in the season. NC State and FSU were voted preseason ACC contenders, but both were fools gold. Wake Forest, Stanford, and Virginia are also near the bottom of the conference.

Louisville was battle-tested with close losses to Notre Dame, SMU, and Miami. They've also played down to their competition's level, so the committee isn't going to look favorably at them either, although the Cardinals are a good football team.

Clemson's strength of record, according to ESPN, is the 29th-best in the country. Miami, SMU, Pitt, and Louisville are ahead of the Tigers. And unfortunately, it gets worse. Clemson's remaining strength of schedule — the difficulty of the games remaining on its schedule — is ranked 43rd.

Six ACC teams are ranked ahead, including SMU (which doesn't make sense, but we'll get to that later), Pitt, Georgia Tech, Florida State, Syracuse, and Boston College. In short, there's no way the committee votes Clemson in with the schedule they have left.

So, are they completely out of luck? Well, no, but it's entirely out of Clemson's hands. Ironically, the only way the Tigers make one of the 12 seeds is by winning the ACC championship.

With a loss to Louisville, Clemson put itself in a bind. The ACC was a three-horse race with Clemson, SMU, and Miami vying for position. With all three not playing each other, a three-way tie was possible in which the tiebreaker would've fallen in favor of Clemson and Miami. But now, the Tigers ACC championship hopes are in SMU and Miami's hands, and thus, their CFP hopes.

With a loss to Louisville, SMU and Miami hold tiebreakers over Clemson since they beat the Cardinals earlier this season. So, either SMU or Miami must lose two of their final regular season games, and it doesn't look likely.

Miami plays Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, and Syracuse, while SMU has Boston College, Virginia, and Cal left to play. Neither should have a problem winning out, even though the Mustangs supposedly have a more difficult remaining schedule than Clemson.

Regardless, Clemson would still need to win out for a chance at the title game. The Tigers still have Virginia Tech — a Jekyll and Hyde team that can turn it on any given Saturday — Pitt, and South Carolina, which crushed the SEC leader Texas A&M. While Clemson making the CFP isn't impossible, fans shouldn't give up their hopes.

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