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Clemson football: Surprising win probability numbers for Tigers in ESPN FPI

By Marty Coleman

Clemson running back Phil Mafah (26) spins out of a tackle by Boston College linebacker Bryce Steele (2) runs during the second quarter at Memorial Stadium in Clemson, S.C., October 2, 2021.Ncaa Football Acc Clemson Boston College
Clemson running back Phil Mafah (26) spins out of a tackle by Boston College linebacker Bryce Steele (2) runs during the second quarter at Memorial Stadium in Clemson, S.C., October 2, 2021.Ncaa Football Acc Clemson Boston College /
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If you’ve spent any time listening to the college football talking heads opining on Clemson football this offseason you’re likely less than 100% confident of the Tigers return to the College Football Playoff after last years hiatus.

Many see the Tigers struggling, some to more extreme than others.  On the other hand, if you’re a believer in ESPN’s FPI metric, well there was good news to be had this past Friday and I have to admit to being caught off guard by some of the numbers assigned to win probabilities for the Tigers.

Clemson was assigned a 90% or better chance of winning 7 games: Furman (99.4%), Louisiana Tech (97.7%), Syracuse (95.2%), Georgia Tech (94.3%), South Carolina (92.2%), Louisville (90.3%) and Boston College (90%)

No one tell Gamecocks that they have the 7th best chance of beating Clemson this year per ESPN.  I’m kidding, everyone tell them and add in that FPI gives FOUR, yes four, ACC teams a better shot at beating the Tigers.

In the 80-89% range is North Carolina State (87.4), Florida State (80.1) and Miami (80.0).

Wake Forest is at 79.2% in the Tigers favor, while Notre Dame is 60.0% for the Tigers.

Some of these jump out to me, especially the Wolfpack who many think will win 10 or more games this season.  Sure, the game is in Death Valley where the Tigers haven’t lost since my  soon to be high school junior son was in the third grade, but this number places Dave Doeren’s group with just a shade better chance of beating Clemson as Louisville or Boston College.

Seems a bit off.

Also, I find the 60% assigned to Notre Dame, in South Bend, to be a tad high, though less of an issue than N.C. State.  It’s the one game I thought the Tigers might struggle with this season as I pointed out in my wild guesses on scores.

Add all that together and the calculator tape gives the Tigers a projected record of 11.1-1.7 (don’t ask me why that doesn’t come out to 13, I have no idea), 100% chance of 6 wins, 75% chance of winning the Atlantic, a 59% chance of winning the ACC, a 57.4% chance of making the playoff, a 24.8% chance of making the National Championship and a 10% chance of winning the big trophy.

According to FPI the Tigers will end up somewhere between the Meineke Car Care Bowl and the National Champion.

Briningstool's potential is off the charts. dark. Next

Interesting to look at as we wait for fall camp to begin, but even for a numbers guy like me, these mean little when the ball is kicked off.

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