Despite the talk around the national media, Clemson has a great chance at making the playoffs this season.
The Tigers still have one of the most talented teams in the country. Since the playoffs started, no team has won a national championship with a Blue-Chip ratio under 50 percent. Clemson's team is at 64 percent, while ACC foe Florida State — the projected ACC Champion — barely misses the mark at 49 percent. Considering the Tigers' schedule, their road to the ACC championship could be decided on October 5, when they face the Seminoles, as long as they take care of business the rest of the season. An ACC Championship would mean an automatic bid.
There are also 12 opportunities to make the playoffs, not four. Even if the Tigers stumble against FSU and Georgia, there’s a possibility Clemson can make the CFP. However, any more blemishes would probably crush their aspirations.
So, what could derail Clemson on the way to their first CFP appearance since 2020? That’s what we’ll answer here.
Three reasons Clemson doesn't make the college football playoffs
Returning production/young depth
Clemson is tied at No. 53 in the nation for the most returning starters with 11. Offensively, they return seven starters, but the defense only returns three, and special teams are returning only one specialist. That hurts the Tigers, especially since the defense in 2023 was arguably the better of the two squads. Clemson has lost 383 of their total tackles from 2023, which comes out to just over 50 percent of the production.
However, that’s not the worst part. Only 46 of the 136 players on the roster are juniors or seniors, and only 26 have scholarships. That means 90 players, including 59 with scholarship, are redshirt sophomores or younger.
Sure, the talent level is elite, but experience matters in college football. It's a tired point, but Dabo Swinney's unwillingness to use the transfer portal has consequences. Having a younger team is one of them. Replacing players transferring out with high school recruiting means the team gets younger each year.
The lack of experience might hurt Clemson in the middle of the season when injuries will inevitably be a problem. Other sports can rely heavily on freshmen, like basketball does with one-and-dones, but high school football players often arrive at college with bodies that aren't ready for the grind of a Division I college football season.