Week 1 in Baton Rouge is already shaping up to be a pressure cooker, and now national analyst Josh Pate is tossing more logs on the fire. On the Crain & Cone college sports show, Pate didn’t sugarcoat it for Tiger Nation: as Clemson gears up for a September 5 showdown in the Bayou, the national narrative is stacked against us. FanDuel Sportsbook has Dabo Swinney’s Tigers as 11.5-point underdogs, and Pate flat-out said it would be a bigger shock to see Clemson pull the upset than to watch LSU run away with it.
The "Surprise" Meter and a Non-Functional Offense
When asked which would be the bigger shock—Clemson winning by a touchdown or LSU rolling by 20-plus—Pate didn’t even blink. He sees a world where LSU runs away with it without needing any miracles, while a Clemson win would mean flipping the script on everything we’ve seen lately.
"I think it would surprise me a little bit more, Clemson winning by seven," Pate said. "Only because there’s a world where an LSU 20-point win is 27-6 or something like that. Clemson’s offense is just non-functional, and LSU grinds out a win."
He pointed out that LSU wouldn’t even need to light up the scoreboard—just grind the clock, maybe snag a defensive touchdown, and let the Bayou crowd do the rest.
Dabo Swinney’s Return to the Underdog Script
This year’s storyline is a total 180 from last season’s opener. Back then, Clemson was the hunted, rolling into Death Valley as the No. 4 team in the country with all eyes on a national title run. But after a gut-punch 17-10 loss to LSU sent the hype train off the rails and led to a frustrating 7-6 finish, Dabo and the Tigers are back in a role we know all too well: the overlooked underdog. Pate pointed out it’s been a while since folks doubted a Clemson roster this talented. Swinney hasn’t shied away from last year’s letdowns, admitting, "We didn’t handle expectations well last year."
But Pate thinks flying under the radar might be just what Dabo needs. While the national media is busy wondering how Clemson will handle a rough start, Swinney is laser-focused on the guys in the locker room and the talent he knows he’s got.
"He believes they’ve got the players in the building to win," Pate noted. "He does not believe that they have to plug 12 holes with 10 fingers. He doesn’t view it that way. Now, we get to see and find out whether he’s right or not."
A Trajectory-Defining Moment in the Bayou
This is Clemson’s first-ever trip to Baton Rouge and the first time we’ve opened a season in SEC country since that magical 2016 title run. With Lane Kiffin making his LSU debut, the stakes couldn’t be higher for either side. When asked if this is Dabo’s biggest game since the 2019 national championship, Pate said it depends on the outcome. He argued last year’s opener was technically bigger because Clemson was supposed to win, and that loss sent the whole season sideways.
But Pate admitted that if Clemson pulls it off on September 5, it could go down as the biggest win of Dabo’s recent run.
"It does set up to where I would agree with you, if they win this game, what it could do for the trajectory of the season," Pate said.
He wrapped up by saying it’s a gamble to call this the "most important" game, because history only remembers what the scoreboard says at the end.
"The only way I can give you a ‘yes’ on this is if they win."
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