Back a while ago, Clemson basketball wasn’t just part of the NCAA Tournament discussion—they were easily penciled in as a No. 5 or No. 6 seed. But a week is a lifetime in college basketball: Four losses can seem like an eternity.
After a 70-65 loss to Florida State on Saturday, the Tigers (20-8, 10-5 ACC) have officially entered the danger zone. And as jarring as the gameplay is the math: It took 24 games for Clemson to lose four times; it has been just 10 days to lose the next four. The “at-large” safety net is largely intact for the time being — the Tigers are at No. 32 in the NET, with a 90% likelihood of being selected — but the “lock” status has been officially lifted. To avert a nerve-racking Selection Sunday, the Tigers have a clear if difficult directive: Win two of the final three regular-season games. The schedule offers no easy outs:
Feb. 28: vs. No. 21 Louisville (Littlejohn Coliseum). March 3: at North Carolina (Chapel Hill). March 7: vs. Georgia Tech (Littlejohn Coliseum). Having two wins in this period would almost certainly seal a bid before the ACC Tournament starts.
But dropping to 1-2 or 0-3 — and losing an upset to last place Georgia Tech, in particular — would place the Tigers’ fate into the hands of the selection committee or result in a deep run to the ACC semifinals in Charlotte. The losing streak has, too, dashed Clemson’s hopes for a double-bye in the ACC Tournament.
As Duke and Virginia secure the top two spots, those spots have been jumped from the Tigers by Miami and NC State (both 10-4), who now hold games in hand over Clemson. The Tigers can still sneak back into the rankings if NC State tanks after a brutal closing period against Virginia and Duke, but Clemson no longer defines its own destiny from a Thursday start in Charlotte.
Despite the “vibe shift” surrounding the program, the metrics still favor Brad Brownell’s team. At No. 32 in the NET, Clemson continues to be a “Quality” tournament team. The committee appreciates the full corpus of work — early-season wins over Georgia and Alabama included — but it also famously hates teams that “limp” into March.
With a week to spend getting well before No. 21 Louisville comes to town, the Tigers have come to the crossroads of their season. The “juice” must come back, or the Tigers may end up watching the Big Dance from the couch.