Rivalry games don’t care about records, but they do magnify weaknesses. That’s why Clemson’s trip to Williams-Brice Stadium (Saturday, noon ET, SEC Network) feels like a classic “one mistake flips it” Palmetto Bowl — especially with a weird series twist: the road team has won each of the last five meetings, and Clemson has won its last five trips to Columbia.
And yet, the baseline math points to Clemson.
South Carolina’s profile says it can hang around — it’s been a plus team in turnover margin (+0.6 per game) and generates takeaways at a top-10 rate (2.0 per game). Clemson’s profile says it can control the way the game is played — cleaner penalties, a sturdier passing game, and a defense that’s been far more reliable on third down.
The matchup that decides it: Clemson’s air game vs. South Carolina’s pressure (or lack of it)
Clemson throws it more than most (Pass Play % 54.43%, #23) and does it efficiently (66.67% completions, 278.3 pass yards/game, INT rate 1.67%). The key stat in a rivalry like this: Clemson’s QB sack rate is just 4.00% (#21), and South Carolina’s “Sack %” sits near the bottom of the country (#102 on your sheet). That’s a recipe for Clemson to stay on schedule and get to the parts of the playbook that stress a defense horizontally and vertically.
Flip it around and the Gamecocks’ biggest red flag shows up in bold: QB sacked 11.39% (#133). Clemson’s sack rate isn’t elite on paper (6.41%, #49), but you don’t need “elite” to wreck a passing plan when the other side is living in 3rd-and-long.
Why this stays close: red-zone resistance + turnover danger
If Clemson’s passing yardage suggests fireworks, the red-zone data suggests something else: South Carolina’s defense tightens near the goal line (Opp RZ Scoring % 77.78%, #18), while Clemson’s red-zone scoring is merely solid (83.87%, #70). That can turn touchdowns into field-goal attempts — and it’s where Clemson’s kicking edge (FG% 86.67%) matters.
But the Gamecocks have a clear “steal it” path: they take the ball away (2.0 takeaways/game, #10), and Clemson’s turnover margin is negative (-0.3/game). In a rivalry with tight windows and fast emotions, one strip-sack or tipped-ball pick can erase three quarters of clean football.
Third down truth serum
Both offenses are shaky on third down (Clemson 33.59%, #113; South Carolina 34.31%, #106). The separator is on the other side: Clemson’s defense is elite at getting off the field (Opp 3D Conv % 31.34%, #11), and South Carolina walks into this game with an offense that already struggles to stay on schedule. That’s how a “close” game still drifts toward Clemson’s control late.
The Numbers Line (projection)
Because you didn’t include a sportsbook spread/total, here’s a clean, stats-based projection using your efficiency + scoring context:
Projected spread: Clemson -3
Final prediction
Clemson’s advantage is structural: better passing production, better protection, and a defensive profile that forces punts — the exact traits that travel, even in a rivalry where the stadium is loud and the margins are thin. Clemson also isn’t supposed to lose to teams with losing records; it hasn’t at kickoff since 2010 and enters with a 36-game active streak against sub-.500 opponents.
Pick: Clemson 24, South Carolina 20