ESPN analytics may be leaning one way — but the game itself feels far from settled.
When Clemson Tigers face the Penn State Nittany Lions in the Pinstripe Bowl on Saturday at Yankee Stadium, both programs arrive with something to prove after seasons that veered sharply off preseason expectations.
Clemson (7–5) enters New York riding a four-game winning streak, looking to close the season with five straight wins — a finish that would further validate one of the most resilient locker rooms of the Dabo Swinney era.
Penn State (6–6) also found late footing, winning three straight games to reach bowl eligibility after a turbulent midseason stretch that included a coaching change.
ESPN’s Numbers Favor Penn State
Despite Clemson opening as a 3.5-point favorite with oddsmakers, ESPN’s Football Power Index tells a different story.
The model gives Penn State a 65.3% chance to win, compared to 34.7% for Clemson, based on thousands of simulations and performance-based metrics. Penn State sits 17th nationally in FPI, while Clemson ranks 30th, though the Tigers remain fourth among ACC programs.
On paper, the Nittany Lions grade out as the more complete team.
On tape — especially late in the season — Clemson has looked far more dangerous.
Clemson’s Late-Season Surge
Clemson closed the regular season with a statement win at South Carolina, powered by a balanced offensive effort and a defense that slammed the door in the second half.
Quarterback Cade Klubnik threw for 268 yards, while the Tigers’ rushing attack eclipsed the century mark. Defensively, Clemson delivered timely takeaways and suffocating pressure, holding South Carolina scoreless after halftime.
That performance extended Clemson’s dominance in the rivalry and reinforced a familiar trend: Clemson tends to play its best football in December.
Penn State’s Path to New York
Penn State’s season followed a different arc. After reaching as high as No. 2 nationally early in the year, the Nittany Lions endured a six-game skid before rebounding late behind a punishing ground game.
Running back Kaytron Allen fueled that resurgence, including a career-best performance in the regular-season finale that pushed Penn State into bowl eligibility.
The question Saturday will be whether that formula holds against a Clemson defense that has tightened significantly down the stretch.
A Clash of Momentum vs. Metrics
This Pinstripe Bowl sets up as a classic postseason contrast:
ESPN’s analytics favor Penn State’s season-long efficiency
Recent form favors Clemson’s surge, confidence, and defensive edge
Clemson is chasing program benchmarks — another postseason win, another eight-win season, and more momentum heading into 2026. Penn State is playing to validate its late rebound and spoil history on one of the sport’s most iconic stages.
Bottom Line
ESPN’s computers see Penn State.
Clemson sees opportunity.
Noon kickoff.
Yankee Stadium.
And a bowl game that feels far closer than the percentages suggest.