The path to the College Football Playoff appears clear for the No. 4 Clemson Tigers, with ESPN's official analytics models favoring them in 11 of their 12 regular-season games.
But the one projected loss is a stunner that will send shockwaves through the Palmetto State: the computers are picking rival South Carolina to upset the Tigers.
A Data-Driven Shocker in the Palmetto State
Despite early betting lines listing Clemson as a four-point favorite, ESPN's analytics give the Gamecocks a 60.4% chance to win the November 29th showdown in Columbia. It's the only game on the Tigers' schedule where they are not the projected winner, creating a massive, data-driven red flag on their path to a perfect season.
Opener vs. LSU a Virtual Coin Flip
Before the Tigers can even think about their rival, they face a monumental test right out of the gate. The models view the season opener against No. 9 LSU as a virtual toss-up, giving Clemson a slim 53.8% win probability.
According to the data, Clemson's toughest ACC matchups are projected to be at home against SMU (64.3% Clemson win probability) and on the road against Louisville (64.5%) and Georgia Tech (65.1%).
Interestingly, the models foresee comfortable victories in matchups against traditional rivals like Florida State, giving the Tigers a dominant 87.1% chance to win that contest in Death Valley.
The analytics, which rank Clemson No. 10 in SP+ and a more modest No. 16 in the FPI, paint a picture of a very good team with a clear path to the playoff—if they can survive a coin-flip opener and avoid a major landmine in their heated season-finale rivalry game.
ESPN Analytics 2025 Clemson Schedule Projections (Win %)
- vs. LSU: 53.8%
- vs. Troy: 93.9%
- at Georgia Tech: 65.1%
- vs. Syracuse: 87.0%
- at North Carolina: 78.1%
- at Boston College: 73.4%
- vs. SMU: 64.3%
- vs. Duke: 79.7%
- vs. Florida State: 87.1%
- at Louisville: 64.5%
- vs. Furman: 99.0%
- at South Carolina: 39.6%