The pageantry will be on full display Saturday in Death Valley. It's Homecoming at Clemson, a tradition dating back to 1922, and the Tigers are riding a 13-game Homecoming winning streak. They haven’t lost a home game to the Duke Blue Devils since 1980, a staggering 15-game run. History, tradition, and a raucous home crowd all point to a comfortable Clemson victory.
But history doesn't play defense.
When the Clemson Tigers (3-4, 2-3 ACC) host the Duke Blue Devils (4-3, 3-1 ACC) at noon ET, they'll be facing a team that, on paper, is built to expose their biggest weakness and spoil the party. After an open date to lick their wounds from a loss to SMU, Dabo Swinney's squad is looking to respond, something they do historically well (39-11 in games following a loss under Swinney). This time, it might not be so simple.
The Glaring Mismatch: Air Raid vs. Air Defense
The story of this game will be written in the air. Duke boasts one of the nation's most efficient passing attacks, ranking 6th in the FBS with 307.3 passing yards per game. They are surgical, completing over 68% of their passes and protecting the football with an elite 0.91% interception rate, the 10th-best mark in the country.
This presents a massive problem for a Clemson defense that has been surprisingly vulnerable against the pass this season. Opponents are completing nearly 61% of their passes against the Tigers and averaging 6.4 yards per attempt. While Clemson's defense is statistically strong overall, allowing only 20.9 points per game, they have not faced a passing offense this precise.
The Turnover Turmoil
This is where the game could flip on its head. Dabo Swinney preaches "TANOGA" – TakeAways, NO GiveAways – but the Tigers have been on the wrong end of that equation this season, posting a -0.6 turnover margin per game. In 2025, they have a -4 turnover margin through seven games.
Duke, conversely, thrives on mistakes. The Blue Devils boast a +0.8 turnover margin per game, forcing an impressive 2.0 takeaways per contest. For a Clemson offense that has coughed the ball up 12 times this year, this is a recipe for disaster. A short field for Duke's high-powered offense could quickly turn the tide.
Can Clemson's History Hold?
Clemson's advantages are not insignificant. Their defense is elite on key downs, allowing opponents to convert just 34% of the time on third down, a top-25 mark nationally. The Tigers are also looking to improve to 38-17-1 all-time against Duke. Memorial Stadium is a fortress where Clemson is 71-8 in the College Football Playoff era, and Swinney is a perfect 23-0 at home against teams from North Carolina.
Duke won the last meeting 28-7 in 2023, and Clemson is 24-11 under Swinney when avenging its most recent loss to an opponent. But this isn't just a revenge game; it's a test of identity for a struggling Clemson team against a Duke squad with the statistical profile of an upset artist.
Prediction:
Clemson 23, Duke 28