ESPN’s numbers didn’t pick a winner for the Palmetto Bowl — they picked a shrug.
Bill Connelly’s SP+ projection for Clemson at South Carolina lands on a flat, tidy 24–24, a scoreline that reads more like a placeholder than a forecast. And yet, even with the “tie” on paper, SP+ still gives Clemson a 51% win probability entering Saturday’s noon kickoff at Williams-Brice Stadium.
That’s the weird tension of this rivalry right now: the margins are small, the emotions are huge, and the models can’t decide whether the next snap tips the state.
Why SP+ Can’t Separate Them
Connelly’s system is built to be predictive, not sentimental — designed to capture what’s stable and repeatable, not what looks great on a résumé.
SP+ measures “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football,” Connelly explains, noting that teams can see their rating fall even after a win if the performance looks lucky or shaky. In the same vein, a tough loss can raise a rating if the underlying play suggests strength.
Translation: SP+ cares less about who you beat and more about how you played.
And right now, it’s seeing two teams that can both look dangerous and uneven — sometimes in the same quarter.
Clemson’s Tune-Up Came With a Fresh Twist
Clemson (6–5) punched its bowl ticket last week with a 45–10 win over Furman, then walked out of Death Valley with a few storylines that suddenly matter in a rivalry game.
Cade Klubnik threw for 159 yards and two touchdowns, then soaked up a final home ovation after exiting midway through the second quarter. Antonio Williams caught both scoring passes and finished with 57 receiving yards, as Clemson ran for 219 yards overall.
But the loudest late-game spark came from true freshman Chris Denson, who looked like he hit fast-forward in his first meaningful action: 4-for-4 passing for 22 yards and a touchdown, plus 106 rushing yards and a rushing score on six carries.
Now the wrinkle: Dabo Swinney said Denson suffered an injury in practice this week, leaving his status worth monitoring as Clemson tries to steal another one in Columbia.
South Carolina’s Offense Finally Broke Loose
South Carolina (4–7) arrives with its own burst of momentum after a 51–7 demolition of Coastal Carolina.
Quarterback LaNorris Sellers did the heavy lifting in every direction, throwing for two touchdowns and running for two more while piling up 356 all-purpose yards (274 passing, 82 rushing). It was the kind of performance that reminds you why Clemson spent weeks prepping for his legs — and why one missed fit can turn into a sideline stampede.
The Gamecocks needed that jolt after losing seven of eight following a 2–0 start. Now they get their biggest stage anyway, because the calendar never cares about your record.
Rivalry Reality Check: Clemson’s Owned Columbia — But USC’s Stolen Death Valley
The recent series trends aren’t clean — they’re split-screen.
Clemson has won eight of the last 10 meetings dating back to 2014, including five straight at Williams-Brice. The Tigers also won the last matchup in Columbia, 16–7 in 2023.
But South Carolina has landed the sharper punches lately when the game moved to Clemson: the Gamecocks have won two of the last three, and both wins came in Death Valley.
So SP+ calling it 24–24 isn’t just funny — it’s honest. This rivalry has been living in the margins, and the margins don’t predict well.
The One Thing That Would Be New: Overtime
One more oddity under the “24–24” projection: Clemson and South Carolina have never played an overtime game since ties were eliminated in 1995.
If this one is still knotted late, the rivalry could finally add a new chapter — and it would be the kind you don’t simulate easily.