The Clemson Tigers are a 5.5-point favorite when the SMU Mustangs visit Memorial Stadium on Saturday at 3:30 p.m.
The spread has seen major movement with the status of Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik still up in the air. After suffering an ankle injury in the second half against Boston College last week, Klubnik was listed as questionable, and backups Chris Vizzina and Trent Pearman took reps at practice.
Klubnik is expected to be a game-time decision. Still, his availability appears to be in doubt based on the lack of certainty and line movement in the betting market.
Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik (ankle) remains questionable for the Tigers against SMU, with his 34-game starting streak in peril. Klubnik status isn’t expected to be known until game-time, per ESPN sources, as there’s a general feeling of pessimism over his availability. pic.twitter.com/n4XWZjzk05
— Pete Thamel (@PeteThamel) October 18, 2025
Spread history
Coming off of two easy blowout wins, the Tigers (3-3 overall, 2-2 ACC) opened as a 10-point favorite. The spread stayed around that number until Thursday, when concern about Klubnik’s availability forced a 4.5-point drop in the line.
As of Saturday morning, DraftKings and FanDuel were still at 5.5. There were a few five-point spreads floating around, and Hard Rock Bet even posted at 4.5 at one point. The line could still move based on more information.
Betting insight
While there was a strong market move toward SMU on Thursday at DraftKings, wagers and money went back to Clemson by Saturday. The Tigers are getting 55% of the bets and 58% of the handle.
However, action in the moneyline market is split, with 59% of the outright winner bets coming in on SMU. The Tigers are getting 79% of the moneyline handle.
As for the total, the over 50.5 points is getting 81% of the money at DraftKings but the under leads tickets with 55%.
Betting analysis
Neither team has been impressive against the spread. Clemson is 2-4, while SMU is 1-5. This is a big game for both teams as the Tigers have to win to keep their dim ACC hopes alive. The Mustangs have still never lost an ACC regular-season game, and they have a legit shot at making it to Charlotte in back-to-back years.
It’s hard to know how many points a starting quarterback is worth in college football, especially in Clemson’s situation. If Klubnik can’t go, Vizzina is likely making his first collegiate start, and he hasn’t done much to inspire confidence in backup duty. Clemson will have to rely on its run game and quick-pass game as well as a defense that must show up big for the Tigers to claim a victory.
SMU got good news with star WR Romello Brinson being available to play, and they can certainly win in Death Valley, but the Mustangs defense has struggled against the pass this year, ranking dead last in the ACC in yards allowed per game through the air.
Sources: SMU WR Romello Brinson is expected to play for the Mustangs at Clemson, as he’s been questionable with an undisclosed injury. Starting CB Jaelyn Davis-Robinson is expected to be a game-time decision, with a determination expected in pre-game. pic.twitter.com/FmClSGHK1H
— Pete Thamel (@PeteThamel) October 18, 2025
Can Clemson take advantage of that weakness potentially without Klubnik? This is also a revenge game for SMU after last year’s ACC Championship Game loss to the Tigers.
Best bet (1-5)
There is just too much uncertainty at too key a position to take the spread in this game. The QB situation could be a mess for the Tigers, who will have to greatly simplify the game plan no matter who’s behind center, and the defense hasn’t played all that inspiringly this season to say they can just shut SMU down for 60 minutes and win a close game.
But this is likely to come down to a few points either way, making SMU enticing. The best bet this week, however, is on the total. The Tigers will have to play keepaway and dictate the pace of the game. Playing at home will help that, and with SMU being 1-5 on the under, take under 50.5 and play the odds that neither offense gets hot in a hotly contested game on a very warm October afternoon.