Clemson's underdog status against South Carolina could get worse before kickoff

For once, Clemson isn’t the hunted. The Tigers are 2.5-point underdogs heading into Columbia, a role that might tempt some to say they’re “playing with house money.” The stats say otherwise.

Even as a dog, Clemson has plenty to lose—momentum, bowl positioning, pride and control of the rivalry—and the numbers show a matchup that can get away from the Tigers if they’re not sharp.

Here’s why they still have to be cautious.

1. Third-Down Inefficiency Is a Serious Liability

If there’s one stat that screams caution, it’s this:

• Clemson 3rd-down offense: 33.59% (#114 nationally)

• South Carolina 3rd-down defense: 39.71% (#72 nationally)

Clemson’s overall production looks decent—27.1 points per game (#60) and 399.2 yards per game (#52)—but it comes with a massive efficiency problem. The Tigers don’t stay on the field.

South Carolina’s defense isn’t elite, but it doesn’t have to be. All it has to do is keep Clemson behind the chains, force 3rd-and-medium or long, and the numbers say drives will stall. For an underdog on the road, empty possessions usually tilt the game quickly.

2. Turnover Margin Heavily Favors South Carolina

The spread may be tight, but the turnover numbers are not.

Clemson:

• Turnover margin per game: –0.3 (#95)

• Takeaways per game: 1.1 (#85)

• Giveaways per game: 1.4 (#85)

South Carolina:

• Turnover margin per game: +0.6 (#22)

• Takeaways per game: 2.0 (#10)

• Giveaways per game: 1.4 (#85)

South Carolina lives off big defensive moments. Clemson’s offense has done a better job limiting interceptions (1.67% INT rate, #14), but the Tigers still aren’t flipping the field with takeaways on the other side.

In a rivalry game where emotions spike and one or two plays can swing everything, the Gamecocks’ profile—top-10 nationally in takeaways—against an offense that already struggles on third down is a major danger sign.

3. Red-Zone Edge Tilts to the Gamecocks

The Tigers can move the ball, but finishing drives is a different story.

Clemson offense:

• Red-zone scoring: 83.87% (#70)

South Carolina defense:

• Opp red-zone scoring: 77.78% (#18)

Flip it:

South Carolina offense:

• Red-zone scoring: 84.00% (#69)

Clemson defense:

• Opp red-zone scoring: 82.14% (#47)

That’s a subtle but real gap. South Carolina tightens up in the red area more than Clemson does, especially defensively. For an underdog Clemson team that can’t afford to chase the game, trading field goals for touchdowns—or coming away with nothing after long drives—would be a recipe for frustration and a hostile crowd feeding off momentum.

4. Clemson’s Run Game Isn’t Dictating Terms

When you’re on the road and already an underdog, you want to control pace and calm the stadium with a consistent ground game. Clemson hasn’t been able to do that.

Clemson rushing offense:

• Rush play rate: 45.57% (#114)

• Yards per rush: 3.9 (#95)

• Rush yards per game: 120.9 (#104)

They don’t run it often, and when they do, it’s not efficient.

South Carolina’s run defense, meanwhile, is quietly solid:

• Opp yards per rush: 4.0 (#47)

• Opp rush yards per game: 144.0 (#49)

That combo suggests Clemson will again lean heavy on the passing game. That’s fine when they’re in rhythm; it’s risky when the margins are thin and the opponent is creating turnovers at a top-10 national rate.

5. South Carolina’s Passing Game Can Stress Clemson Just Enough

South Carolina’s offense doesn’t have gaudy totals, but it does have some numbers Clemson has to respect:

Gamecock passing offense:

• Yards per pass: 7.8 (#44)

• Completion percentage: 62.14% (#59)

Clemson pass defense:

• Opp yards per pass: 6.6 (#38)

• Opp completion percentage: 61.10% (#54)

• Opp pass play rate: 56.60% (#135)

Opponents are throwing a ton against Clemson, and South Carolina is efficient enough through the air to keep drives alive and hit timely shots. Yes, the Gamecocks’ protection has been a problem—11.39% sack rate (#133)—but Clemson can’t count on that alone to get off the field.

If the Tigers don’t win early downs, their defense could be stuck in long series against a balanced attack (52.98% run / 47.02% pass) that keeps them honest.

6. Penalties and Discipline Could Backfire If Clemson Gets Too Emotional

One of Clemson’s quiet strengths has been discipline:

• Penalties per game: 4.4 (#16)

• Penalties per play: 0.03 (#12)

South Carolina is on the opposite end:

• Penalties per game: 7.6 (#122)

• Penalties per play: 0.06 (#124)

On paper, that’s a Clemson advantage. But in rivalry settings, there’s a catch: when the more disciplined team starts pressing—especially as an underdog—late hits, pass interference and procedural mistakes can creep in.

The Tigers can’t lose their edge by trying to “do too much” to flip the script. Their ability to stay clean has to be a weapon, not something that erodes once adversity hits.

7. Time of Possession Won’t Save Clemson If Efficiency Doesn’t Improve

Clemson actually holds a slight edge in time of possession:

• Clemson TOP: 51.73% (#38)

• South Carolina TOP: 48.22% (#97)

But time of possession without conversion, finishing drives, and protecting the ball doesn’t win games. The Tigers can’t just “hold the ball” and expect the game to fall their way. Efficiency—and especially turnover avoidance—will matter far more than raw clock control.

The Bottom Line

Clemson might be the underdog on the betting line, but that doesn’t mean there’s no pressure. The numbers show:

• A 3rd-down crisis on offense

• A turnover margin disadvantage against one of the nation’s best takeaway units

• A red-zone edge leaning toward South Carolina

• An inefficient run game that could force Clemson to be one-dimensional on the road

If the Tigers don’t clean up those areas, the spread won’t matter. Clemson has to treat this like a must-execute, high-discipline game—not a free shot as an underdog—if it wants to walk out of Columbia with the rivalry and the season narrative still intact.