Rivalry week is where logic goes to die, and Clemson walks into Columbia as a 2.5-point underdog with just enough flaws to fuel a full-blown nightmare.
The Tigers have advantages in talent and passing efficiency, but the matchup data says this isn’t some fluky Vegas line. If a few key pressure points break the wrong way, Dabo Swinney’s team could be in for a very long afternoon in Williams-Brice Stadium.
Here’s what could go wrong for Clemson in the upcoming game—and how the numbers say it might happen.
1. Third-Down Meltdown Keeps the Offense Stuck in Neutral
If Clemson loses this game, you can almost guarantee this stat shows up in the postmortem:
- Clemson 3rd-down offense: 33.59% (#114 nationally)
- South Carolina 3rd-down defense: 39.71% (#72 nationally)
This is the blueprint for disaster:
- Inefficient early-down runs (Clemson’s 3.9 yards per carry, #95).
- Predictable 3rd-and-medium/long situations.
- Drives dying before they even challenge South Carolina’s red-zone defense.
Clemson averages 399.2 yards per game (#52), but if those yards don’t turn into consistent chains and points, you get the worst-case scenario: empty possessions that crank up the crowd and hand South Carolina extra chances.
If the Tigers go 3-for-12 or 4-for-14 on third down, this game swings heavily toward the Gamecocks.
2. Turnover Tide Turns Into a Wave
Turnovers are the one area where South Carolina has a clear, game-changing edge.
Clemson:
- Turnover margin: –0.3 per game (#95)
- Takeaways per game: 1.1 (#85)
South Carolina:
- Turnover margin: +0.6 per game (#22)
- Takeaways per game: 2.0 (#10)
Clemson’s offense has been relatively safe throwing the ball (1.67% INT rate, #14), but the Tigers haven’t matched that with game-flipping plays on defense. That’s where disaster creeps in.
The nightmare script looks like this:
- A fumble in Clemson territory.
- A tipped interception that hands South Carolina a short field.
Meanwhile, the Tigers’ defense forces field goals and punts but never steals a possession.
In a rivalry game decided by a handful of plays, a turnover margin of –2 or worse would almost certainly bury Clemson.
3. Red-Zone Frustration Breaks the Tigers’ Back
Clemson can rack up yardage between the 20s. The real fear is what happens when the field shrinks.
Clemson offense:
- Red-zone scoring: 83.87% (#70)
South Carolina defense:
- Opp red-zone scoring: 77.78% (#18)
Flip it around:
- South Carolina offense: 84.00% (#69)
- Clemson red-zone defense: 82.14% (#47)
If this goes sideways, it’ll look like:
- Clemson settles for field goals after long drives.
- South Carolina finishes its red-zone trips with touchdowns.
- The Tigers outgain the Gamecocks but trail on the scoreboard.
Clemson’s kicking game has been solid—86.67% FG conversion (#26)—but field goals won’t silence that stadium if South Carolina is punching it in from the same distance.
4. Run Game Vanishes, Forcing Clemson Into High-Risk Mode
Road underdog 101: You want a run game that travels. Clemson doesn’t have that luxury right now.
Clemson rushing offense:
- Rush play rate: 45.57% (#114)
- Yards per rush: 3.9 (#95)
- Rush yards per game: 120.9 (#104)
They don’t run often, and when they do, it’s not particularly efficient.
South Carolina’s defense is good enough against the run to push Clemson further out of balance:
- Opp yards per rush: 4.0 (#47)
- Opp rush yards per game: 144.0 (#49)
The nightmare version of this game is obvious:
- Clemson falls behind early.
- The run game disappears.
The Tigers become a 40+ attempts passing team on the road, into a fired-up front that’s selling out for hits and turnovers.
Clemson’s pass protection has held up well (4.00% sack rate, #21), but when you’re throwing that much in a rivalry game, one blindside hit or tip at the line can flip everything.
5. South Carolina’s Passing Game Hits Just Enough Big Shots
South Carolina’s overall offensive numbers don’t scare anybody at first glance:
- 22.0 points per game (#95)
- 336.1 yards per game (#97)
But the Gamecocks are quietly efficient when they do throw:
- Yards per pass: 7.8 (#44)
- Completion percentage: 62.14% (#59)
- Now layer in Clemson’s defensive profile:
- Opp yards per pass: 6.6 (#38)
- Opp completion percentage: 61.10% (#54)
- Opp pass play rate: 56.60% (#135) – teams throw a lot against the Tigers.
If this goes wrong for Clemson, it looks like:
- South Carolina doesn’t need 450 yards; it just needs three or four explosives.
- A busted coverage, a missed tackle on a slant, a double-move against aggressive corners.
- Those plays arrive in high-leverage spots—on third down, in the red zone, or right after a Clemson mistake.
The Gamecocks don’t have to be perfect. They just need to cash in when Clemson’s defense finally bends too far.
6. Field Position and Hidden Yardage Quietly Bleed Clemson Out
The raw stats won’t show this right away, but they hint at it.
Clemson’s defense:
- 22.1 opponent points per game (#34)
- 355.2 opponent yards per game (#46)
That’s strong.
But if Clemson’s offense is:
- Going 3-and-out due to third-down failures, and losing the turnover battle, then South Carolina’s offense starts multiple drives on the Clemson side of the 50. Even an efficient defense eventually cracks under that kind of pressure.
Meanwhile, South Carolina’s own defense has been solid at limiting scoring efficiency:
- 22.7 opponent points per game (#41)
- 0.334 points per play allowed (#35)
The nightmare version of this game isn’t a track meet—it’s a slow bleed where Clemson plays on a long field all day, while South Carolina gets short fields and easier points.
7. Emotion Flips the Discipline Script
Clemson has actually been one of the cleaner teams in the country:
- Penalties per game: 4.4 (#16)
- Penalties per play: 0.03 (#12)
South Carolina has not:
- Penalties per game: 7.6 (#122)
- Penalties per play: 0.06 (#124)
On paper, this is a Clemson advantage. In reality, this is rivalry week—and that’s where things can go sideways.
If Clemson presses:
- A late hit on the sideline keeps a South Carolina drive alive.
- A defensive pass interference wipes out a third-down stop.
- A false start on 3rd-and-2 kills a drive in a hostile environment.
Flip a couple of those situations, and Clemson’s strength becomes a wash—or worse, a self-inflicted wound.
The Worst-Case Picture
Put it all together, and the nightmare scenario for Clemson in Columbia looks like this:
- Third-down offense stalls.
- Turnover margin goes –2 or worse.
- Red-zone trips end in field goals, while South Carolina cashes in touchdowns.
- The run game disappears.
- One or two deep shots from South Carolina crack the game open.
- Penalties and field position compound every mistake.
If too many of those boxes get checked, the 2.5-point spread stops feeling close—and Clemson spends another offseason talking about “what could have been” in a rivalry that was there for the taking.