To produce the upset tonight, Clemson must figure out how to complete what they began in Chapel Hill. Nine days ago the Tigers held a 30-27 lead at the break and seemed like they were the superior team for extended stretches, only to watch the game slip away in a 67-63 heartbreaker. If Brad Brownell hopes to move on to the semifinals, he can now examine three statistical foundations of the March 3 game:
1. The RJ Godfrey Factor
Godfrey was possessed on the first outing, going down a career-high 22 points on an extremely efficient 10-for-13 shooting. He alone almost forced Clemson to a win, returning nine rebounds for the game. With Carter Welling likely sidelined, the Tigers need Godfrey to be that same inner force.
2. Protection of the Arc (specifically Luka Bogavac)
Clemson is not on a two-game win streak against the Heels, the big reason? Luka Bogavac. The UNC guard stepped off the bench to torch the Tigers for 20 points, some of them a blistering 6-for-10 from 3-point range. Clemson went up against UNC from the floor (43% to 38%) but the Heels lived by the long ball, knocking down 12 triples to the seven by Clemson.
3. Own the Paint
That’s where Clemson has the opportunity to be victorious. In the regular-season finale, the Tigers harassed UNC, scoring 34-18 against them in the paint. But the Tigers also have the size and physicality to make the Tar Heels uncomfortable — even with Welling out. If they can dominate the glass and put UNC into position for the “lowest field goal percentage in a win” (which they did on March 3), they’ll be able to steal this one in the last minutes.
Key Stats from March 3:
Final Score: UNC 67, Clemson 63
Field Goal %: Clemson 43.3% | UNC 37.9%
3-Point %: Clemson 35.0% | UNC 44.4%
Rebounds: Clemson 36 | UNC 37
Paint Points: Clemson 34 | UNC 18