At the beginning of the season, the bottom half of Clemson's schedule seemed like an easy stretch compared to the top. Georgia, NC State, and Florida State looked like a difficult slate in the first five games, but the only team with teeth was Georgia.
FSU and NC State fell on their faces early in the season and never stood back up. With both failing to meet expectations, the road to the ACC championship looked easier than ever... for about 2.8 seconds. Louisville, Pitt, Virginia Tech, and South Carolina will be tough wins for Clemson. In fact, ESPN's Football Power Index only gives the Tigers an 11.4 percent chance to win out in conference play.
Louisville would always be Clemson's hardest game in its final stretch, but the Cardinals are now fighting for their ACC hopes. Unlike FSU and NC State, Louisville didn't fold when it faced adversity; it always fought. Its schedule is one of the hardest in the conference, but they've managed a respectable record of 5-3. When Louisville comes to Clemson on Saturday, the Tigers will face a talented group with their backs against the wall, and that's when teams get dangerous.
Virginia Tech is in the same boat as Louisville, but when it lost to Vanderbilt in week one, most of the media wrote them off. Now, Vandy looks like a legitimate team after beating Alabama and staying within three of Texas.
On the other hand, Pitt came out of nowhere and is one of the only undefeated teams left in the country. However, Its toughest stretch is in front of them. Without quality wins, it's hard to gauge the Panthers, but we'll know more after they take on SMU this Saturday.
Clemson's final game of the season isn't apart of ESPN's equations, but it's a sneaky dangerous game for the Tigers. The rivalry game with South Carolina is always a hard-fought battle for obvious reasons, but the Gamecocks have a great defensive line. They could cause trouble for Clemson this year, especially if they're fighting for a bowl game. Luckily, South Carolina's offense isn't outstanding, so of the four games, it might be the easiest to win on the schedule other than the Citadel.
For context, the FPI gives SMU a slightly higher chance to win out, with 15 percent. The odds include winning an ACC game, but essentially, the FPI is picking the Mustangs to make the championship game ahead of Clemson. SMU and the Tigers aren't playing each other this season, giving neither a chance for a head-to-head win over the other. The first team to lose a conference game is likely out of the running.