When Clemson was at the pinnacle of the college football world, claiming two national championships and earning six consecutive College Football Playoff berths, a curious theme emerged: SEC dominance.
Between 2014, when former quarterback Deshaun Watson landed on campus, and 2018, the Tigers’ last national title, head coach Dabo Swinney’s ACC program produced a 10-3 record against SEC teams.
That included two wins in three consecutive meetings against Alabama, something the Crimson Tide’s conference rivals struggled to do during legendary head coach Nick Saban's heyday. The Tigers also beat Auburn twice, won at Texas A&M, and put in-state rival South Carolina through the blender during a seven-year win streak over the Gamecocks.
It separated the Tigers from everyone else in the country, making them a model program and the envy of their peers. They changed the narrative that only SEC teams were good enough to win the title. Clemson broke barriers, earned massive respect, and set the bar for being fearless against the big, bad SEC.
They even covered the betting spread in over half of those games, a notable feat.
Times, though, have changed. Since 2019, the Tigers are 5-7 head-to-head against the SEC. They’re an even more mortal 3-6 vs. that conference since 2021. The SEC only played conference opponents in the COVID-19 year of 2020.
Clemson’s been even worse against the spread, going 1-6 in the last seven showdowns and 3-9 in the last 12 against the SEC. One of those defeats came in the national championship game against LSU, Saturday’s season-opening opponent.
Last year, the Tigers went 0-3 vs. the SEC and failed to cover any spreads with losses to Georgia in the season opener in Atlanta, South Carolina in Death Valley in the final regular season game, and Texas in the first round of the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff.
“You can pick and choose those stats however you want,” Swinney said on Tuesday when asked about the recent struggles against the SEC. “In totality, I think we’ve done pretty well.”
If you take a broad look, Swinney’s not wrong. Clemson has the same number of wins over SEC teams over the last 11 seasons as Mississippi State has over the last six seasons. The Bulldogs play eight (soon to be nine) SEC teams every year.
Still, the last few years have to have been disheartening for Swinney and the program. No, the record against the SEC isn’t the end-all, be-all. Clemson is built on many more substantial and measurable foundations, and they don’t give out a trophy for beating SEC teams unless you’re in the SEC or you beat one of their teams in the national title.
But this is a narrative-driven sport. We don’t judge programs just on titles. There are far too many schools for that. Plus, coaches, players, and fans are reminded of failures and successes all the time, and the reality is, one of the sharpest arrows in Clemson’s quiver over the last decade-plus has been dulled.
So, is there a common theme surrounding these struggles against SEC teams?
“Sometimes they are just better than you, and sometimes you make some critical errors that cost you,” Swinney said.
It's not the most ideal explanation, but both certainly are to blame. Clemson's talent level hasn't been what it was during the national championship seasons, and maybe that's led to mistakes in key moments.
Look at last year. In the opener against Georgia, Swinney reminded everyone on Tuesday of a simple defensive mistake that led to an explosive score.
Against South Carolina last November, Cade Klubnik threw a red-zone interception with 12 seconds left. That costly error sealed the second win in three seasons for the Gamecocks, who before 2022 had not won at Memorial Stadium since 2012.
In the playoff game at Texas, the Tigers turned the ball over twice in the first half, leading to an 18-point deficit. After climbing back into the game in the fourth quarter, cutting the Longhorns’ lead to seven, the defense gave up a 77-yard TD run, and Clemson’s offense turned the ball over on downs on its final two drives, both deep into Texas territory.
There's only one way to turn the trends and narratives around. Start by beating No. 9 LSU in one of the most hyped home openers ever.
No. 4 Clemson, which has its most talented team in years, can right some wrongs with a win on Saturday. Another loss keeps the tally going in the wrong direction, and the questions will only get tougher.