Two weeks from now, college football’s long road bends into Yankee Stadium — and Clemson arrives with quiet leverage. The Tigers opened as 4.5-point favorites against Penn State in the Pinstripe Bowl (Dec. 27, noon ET, ABC), a number shaped as much by availability as reputation.
Both programs began the year with Top-5 aspirations. Both missed them. And now both bring altered rosters to a game that looks nothing like the preseason promise. Clemson (7-5) went 5-7 against the spread; Penn State (6-6) went 4-8. Each closed strong at 3-1 ATS, but the bowl version of this matchup hinges on who actually suits up.
A Different Roster, Same Edge
The opt-out wave has been heavier in Happy Valley, where Penn State navigates bowl prep under an interim head coach and faces potential NFL departures across the offensive line and backfield. That uncertainty has pushed most predictors toward Clemson.
Nine of 11 bowl forecasts tracked by The Athletic side with the Tigers. Covers.com echoed that sentiment, citing Clemson’s steadier outlook and competitive edge despite a season that never fully clicked.
“Penn State is in flux with an interim head coach,” Covers’ Andrew Caley wrote. “Expect most of [the NFL talent] to opt out… Clemson has proven it will still fight in a lost season.”
Models vs. Momentum
Not everyone is buying the chalk. CBS Sports’ projection model leans Penn State to cover, pointing to scoring efficiency, geography, and recent bowl history.
“One of the college football picks the model is high on… Penn State (+4.5) covers,” CBS’ Ross Kelly wrote, noting Clemson’s recent bowl struggles and Penn State’s stronger scoring profile in a tougher league. The model also favors the under, projecting a lower-scoring game in nearly 60% of simulations.
That undercurrent is consistent across the board. Bleacher Report stopped short of a spread call but flagged the total (48.5) as vulnerable, especially with defensive identities intact and offensive stars potentially missing.
Defense Travels — Even to the Bronx
When Clemson wins, it suffocates. The Tigers held opponents under 20 points in all seven victories. Penn State did the same in five of its six wins. Strip away explosive options, add cold weather and a baseball sightline, and this game profiles as a grind.
CFN’s Pete Fiutak framed it simply: effort, defense, and a tight finish.
“Before the season, this was supposed to be a national title-level matchup,” Fiutak wrote. “The Tigers will give all-out effort… in a fun game.”
His first-thought score: Clemson 23, Penn State 20.
The Final Read
The line says Clemson. The models hedge. The total sinks. And the truth likely lives between availability and attitude. In a bowl season defined by who’s missing, Clemson’s biggest edge may be the ones who aren’t.