Advanced metrics largely favor Penn State over Clemson ahead of Saturday’s Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl at Yankee Stadium.
Despite Clemson entering bowl week as a slight betting favorite, several analytical models project Penn State as the more likely winner in the noon kickoff.
The FEI model from BCFToys gives Penn State a 71.7% chance to win and projects a 28.9–20.5 victory. Clemson enters the matchup ranked 37th nationally in FEI, while Penn State is ranked 20th, making the Nittany Lions the highest-rated opponent Clemson has faced this season by that metric.
Special teams are a significant factor in FEI’s projection. Penn State ranks second nationally in special teams efficiency, while Clemson is rated 65th.
ESPN’s SP+ model also favors Penn State, projecting a 29–23 win and assigning the Nittany Lions a 64% chance to win. Penn State is ranked 17th nationally in SP+, supported by an offense ranked 18th and special teams ranked seventh. Clemson is ranked 32nd, with the Tigers’ defense rated 24th and offense 57th.
The Football Power Index gives Clemson a 34.7% chance to win. Penn State is ranked 17th in FPI, while Clemson sits at 30th and ranks fourth among ACC teams.
CFP Graphs offers the narrowest margin, projecting a 24.6–23.8 Penn State victory and giving Clemson a 48.6% chance to win.
That model highlights Clemson’s defensive efficiency, particularly on third and fourth downs. The Tigers rank eighth nationally in defensive third- and fourth-down stops, allowing conversions on 31% of attempts. Penn State converts 44.8% of its third- and fourth-down opportunities on offense.
Clemson allows 2.69 points per quality drive, ranking 11th nationally, while Penn State allows 4.2, ranking 17th. Offensively, Clemson converts 38.7% of third- and fourth-down attempts, ranking 95th nationally.
The Pinstripe Bowl kicks off at noon ET Saturday and will be televised on ABC.