On paper, Clemson should steady itself against Troy on Saturday (3:30 p.m. ET, ACC Network). In reality, the Tigers have a narrow margin if some familiar cracks show up again. Troy is fresh off a fourth-quarter avalanche in its opener, brings a multiple, run-first identity, and has the receipts from a 2016 near-shock in this stadium. Stack it all together, and here’s what could go wrong for Clemson.
1) A run game stalemate — again
LSU jammed Clemson’s rushing attack to 31 yards on 20 attempts and suffocated the second half by holding the ball for all but nine minutes. If short-yardage push and early-down efficiency don’t improve, the Tigers could again become one-dimensional and predictable. That’s the exact game script Troy wants.
2) Troy’s fourth-quarter punch lands
Don’t let the logo fool you — Troy closed like a Power 5 bully last week: 28 fourth-quarter points, a QB who accounted for four touchdowns, and a tailback who ripped off 186 yards, including a 47-yard dagger. If Clemson lets this linger into the fourth, the Trojans have shown they can flip a game late.
3) The injury tightrope on both edges of the field
WR Antonio Williams (hamstring) and S Khalil Barnes (hamstring) are day-to-day. Without Williams, Clemson’s spacing and third-down options constrict; without Barnes, the back end loses a tone-setter against a team that loves to dress up the run with personnel shifts. If either sits — or is limited — Clemson’s ceiling drops on both sides.
4) “Multiple” means misaligned — and that’s how explosives happen
Dabo Swinney spent the week praising how different this Troy is: heavy personnel, more groupings “than anybody we play,” and a run-leaning approach that keeps defenses guessing. Against LSU, Clemson’s new-look defense was plenty good — 17 points allowed — but this is a different puzzle. One eye-blink substitute error or misfit in the alley, and Troy has already shown the vertical shot (66-yard TD vs. Nicholls) and the home-run run (Meadows’ 47-yarder) to punish it.
5) Special teams déjà vu
The turning point vs. LSU was a missed 48-yard field goal; momentum flipped and never came back. Against Troy in 2016, Death Valley lived through one of the strangest special-teams afternoons you’ll see: a dropped ball short of the goal line on a punt return that erased a touchdown, plus a controversial early whistle that negated a Troy scoop-and-score at the 1. If Saturday gets weird, special teams can keep the door propped open.
What it looks like if it goes sideways
The blueprint is simple: Clemson gets 2nd-and-8 too often, misses a field goal or exchanges a red-zone touchdown for three, and Troy bleeds the clock with Tae Meadows before dialing up a shot off heavy personnel. Add one coverage bust or a substitution penalty on third down, and you’re in a one-score game into the fourth — exactly where the Trojans thrived last week.
The counter (because there is one)
Tom Allen’s defense just held LSU to 17 and forced multiple key stops; if that front closes gaps early and turns Troy into a drop-back operation, the upset math crumbles. Meanwhile, even a modest bounce-back on the ground will unlock Clemson’s RPO game and protect the defense from another second-half possession crunch. But the path to trouble is real, and it’s not hard to find.
Bottom line: Respect the matchup, win the trenches early, and clean up the hidden yards. Ignore any one of those, and Saturday stops being a get-right game.