The Dabo Swinney era is facing one of its most desperate moments. Following a brutal 46-45 last-second loss to Duke, the Clemson Tigers are 3-5 and in very real danger of missing a bowl game for the first time in 21 years.
There is no time to feel sorry for themselves. The Florida State Seminoles (4-4) are coming to Death Valley for a night game, fresh off a 42-7 demolition of Wake Forest and smelling blood in the water.
For the first time in 15 years, this iconic rivalry will be played with both teams unranked. But for Clemson, the stakes couldn't be higher. A loss all but ends their season. The statistical matchups show a few clear paths to victory and several glaring warning signs.
Here are the five keys for Clemson to upset Florida State and save its season.
1. The Unstoppable Force vs. The Immovable Object
This is the entire game. Florida State's offense is built on a dominant rushing attack that ranks #11 in the nation, gashing teams for 224.4 yards per game. They will try to run the ball right down Clemson's throat.
Clemson's one remaining elite unit is its run defense, which ranks #18 in the nation, allowing only 105.9 yards per game. This is a heavyweight title fight. If Clemson's defensive line can hold the point of attack and keep FSU's ground game under 150 yards, they have a chance. If they get run over, the game is over.
2. Unleash the Air Attack
Clemson's rushing offense is ranked a dismal #96. FSU's run defense is a brick wall at #24. The Tigers will not win this game on the ground.
Clemson's only clear offensive advantage is its #11-ranked passing attack (296.9 ypg). Cade Klubnik, Adam Randall, and T.J. Moore must attack FSU's #56-ranked pass defense early and often. FSU's defense is vulnerable, giving up 3.67% of passes for interceptions (#25), but Clemson has to take those chances. The Tigers will only win this game if Klubnik has a 300+ yard, multi-touchdown performance.
3. Win the "Money Down"
Get ready for another battle of the titans. Florida State's offense is statistically one of the most clutch in America, converting an incredible 50.53% of their third downs (ranked #10 in FBS).
Fortunately, Clemson's defense is just as clutch, allowing conversions on only 32.41% of third downs (ranked #17). The winner of this specific matchup—FSU's offense vs. Clemson's defense on third down—will control the clock, the tempo, and the final score.
4. Stop the Self-Destruction (Turnovers)
Clemson is one of the worst teams in the country in turnover margin at -0.6 per game (ranked #112). Florida State isn't much better (#81), but their defense is far more opportunistic.
FSU's defense ranks #25 in the nation in opponent interception percentage, while Clemson's offense ranks #38 in throwing picks. If Clemson gives FSU's potent #16-ranked scoring offense 2-3 extra possessions, the Tigers won't be able to keep up.
5. Exploit FSU's "Gift"
Here is the one area where Clemson has a massive, undeniable advantage: discipline. Florida State is one of the ACC's most-penalized teams, racking up 55.6 penalty yards per game (#71).
Clemson, meanwhile, is one of the nation's least penalized teams (#26). The Tigers must play a clean, composed game and let the Seminoles self-destruct. False starts, holdings, and pass interference calls will be Clemson's best friend, stalling FSU drives and extending their own.