Clemson Football: ESPN FPI favors Syracuse this weekend

Clemson Football is 2-2 on the 2023 season. Fans are disappointed after offseason hopes of going back to the College Football Playoff.

While the team played poorly at Duke, they played an overall good game against Florida State. Many feel this is a good team that has slipped up against good competition.

Florida State is currently 5th in the AP Top 25, and Duke is ranked 17th.

When the spread was released for this game on Monday, Clemson was favored by about a touchdown on most books.

The most curious thing is that (as of Monday) ESPN favors Syracuse this Saturday. ESPN Analytics gives the Orange a 55.1% of winning the game.

ESPN’s FPI ranks Clemson 17th. It ranks Syracuse 20th. With the game happening in New York, ESPN apparently thinks the home-field advantage gives the Orange an edge over the Tigers.

Like a lot of other metrics, the FPI is often criticized when the variables used in the algorithm deliver unusual results. For example, Clemson was 17th last week as well. This means they did not drop following their home loss to Florida State. FSU also remained unchanged at 10th. Essentially, the FPI is saying what happened Saturday was exactly what should have happened and these teams are exactly what it thought they were.

These are the current odds for Clemson Football at Syracuse

On the other hand, Syracuse (who is 4-0) dropped four spots from 16th to 20th following a victory against Army. That’s right: the Orange was ranked ahead of Clemson a week ago and dropped below them following a victory against a Group of Five team.

Sometimes these metrics can bring insight. Sometimes they are very confusing. Other systems need more data before they are useful. As the season progresses, they become more accurate.

I defer to the oddsmakers right now, but I am curious if the spread moves over the course of the week.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change