Clemson Football: Will conference realignment take center stage again?

The basketball teams are in mid-season and the baseball & softball teams are getting ready for the first pitches of their seasons. There is plenty of action left for Tiger sports before the summer break, but with Clemson Football now entering the offseason, it is probably only a matter of time before conference realignment news begins to churn again.

Several realignment decisions from last offseason are set to begin with the start of the 2023-24 calendar. The following changes will all take place starting next season.

• Big 12: BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF will be joining, temporarily giving the conference 14 teams until Texas and Oklahoma depart for the SEC, which is planned for 2025, but could happen sooner.
• American: Charlotte, Florida Atlantic, North Texas, Rice, UAB, and UTSA will be joining.
• Conference-USA: Liberty, New Mexico State, Jacksonville State, Sam Houston State, and Kennesaw State will be joining. The latter three programs will be moving up from the FCS level.

USC and UCLA plan to join the Big Ten starting with the 2024 season, so they will remain in the PAC-12 for one more year.

The question most relevant for Clemson is whether there are any changes to the ACC. The Grant of Rights for the conference lasts through the end of the 2035-36 season, which means the rights to broadcast the sports properties of every ACC institution will belong to the conference for another thirteen years. The conference then licenses those rights to broadcasters.

There do not appear to be any easy solutions for teams that want to exit Grant of Rights contracts. They are dictating USC’s and UCLA’s moves to the Big Ten: the PAC-12’s GOR expires at the end of the 2023-24 season.

It is also dictating the actions of Texas and Oklahoma. The Big 12’s GOR expires at the end of the 2024-25 season. The two schools would like to leave sooner, but they must negotiate an earlier exit.

For an ACC team to get out of the GOR, they have two realistic possibilities: 1) take legal action to get the GOR thrown out or 2) negotiate compensation with the league to allow them to exit the GOR.

To challenge the legality of the GOR, the school would have to prove the contract is illegal or that the conference mislead the schools when agreeing to it. Most of the communications between the schools and the conference were private, so only they know if there are any options in that regard.

If there are teams that want to exit the ACC, they have probably been scouring over options to challenge the GOR in the courts. If they have found a way they think will work, we can expect them to act sooner than later. Such lawsuits could be filed as soon as this summer.

If they can’t find a legal solution, then their only chance is to negotiate a settlement. It is one thing to negotiate an exit from a GOR one or two years early. A GOR that doesn’t expire for thirteen more years is a different beast.

The cost of convincing the ACC to allow a team to leave right now would be more expensive than most schools could afford unless they have some leverage to convince the conference to significantly lower the cost.

Schools could use the threat of legal action to influence the ACC to come to the negotiation table, but that will only work if the threat is credible. Another option is to offer future considerations.

Clemson Football and the ACC aren’t likely to see any major changes this offseason

One of the strategies that Texas and Oklahoma are pursuing to exit the Big 12 early is to offer future games at Big 12 school sites. The rights to broadcast games will belong to the home team, meaning the Big 12 will ultimately receive the payout. Texas and Oklahoma are big draws in college football, so both their fans and national viewers would tune in for the games.

The consideration of future games at Big 12 sites might make a difference for Texas and Oklahoma to exit a GOR a season early, maybe two.

Will the promise of a current ACC member agreeing to schedule road games at future ACC schools be enough to make a dent in the cost of leaving the GOR a decade early? Not likely.

This summer, we might hear about Texas and Oklahoma leaving the Big 12 a year early. We might hear about other schools from the PAC-12 or Big 12 leaving for the SEC or the Big Ten. We might hear about a move for Notre Dame – they won’t have to negotiate nearly as large of a settlement to leave the ACC as football-playing members.

Considering the challenges of leaving the ACC GOR for full members, it isn’t likely that we will see much movement this offseason.