Let’s be honest, the ACC Championship Game has lost almost all of the sizzle from a few weeks ago when the matchup between Clemson football and the North Carolina Tar Heels was sealed.
Both teams were 9-1 and Clemson was in a position for a shot at the College Football Playoff.
A funny thing happened on the way to a matchup of 11-1 teams with national implications. North Carolina hasn’t won since and Clemson lost to South Carolina, ending their playoff hopes, while simultaneously creating questions for the Tiger coaching staff and fan base.
Yet, here we are preparing for another game with Clemson as a sizable favorite since the spread opened.
The Tigers opened as 8-point favorites, it dropped to 7.5 fairly quickly and has remained at that number since. An over/under of 63.5 implies a final of 35.5 to 28 in Clemson’s favor.
The money line shows the Tigers at -305 and the Tar Heels at +240.
The number makes it almost impossible to bet Clemson at -7.5, because this team has found a way to make games closer than they should be and that hook on the end is a scary proposition against a team that can score in bunches like North Carolina.
Perhaps it’s just because of what we saw last week, but I’m finding it tough to believe the Clemson offense will put up 35 against anyone, even North Carolina.
That said, as was proved last week, they don’t have to necessarily, the defense can help, either outright like last week, or by giving the offense field position.
Can the Clemson football offense keep up with Drake Maye and North Carolina?
The 7.5 spread and 63.5 total numbers make me uncomfortable taking a side against the spread in this one and I’d look elsewhere if I were betting on this one.
Early Lean: North Carolina +240
As a Clemson fan, this is bet I’d never make in real life. However, being objective, you’d have to think an offense as prolific as the Tar Heels has a decent opportunity to outscore a Clemson offense that struggles to pass the ball.
The +240 number implies a 29.41% probability of North Carolina winning and I think that number is closer to 40% (+150), potentially giving you more than a 10% value, which would be difficult to pass up.
RubbingtheRock.com will have a final best bet later in the week.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change