Clemson Football: Win probabilities for remaining games

Way back in late October, we went through the remaining games on the Clemson football schedule and put them in order from easiest to hardest based on the ESPN FPI Win Probability assigned.

Lo and behold, the Tigers lost the one that was assigned the lowest win probability (64.8%).

The results of Clemson vs. Notre Dame, with the results for the other teams, means those probabilities have shifted and now we’ll revisit the last three games of the season and examine the new probabilities.

First up, this week’s game with Louisville.

Matchup

Louisville Cardinals

6-3

Clemson Tigers

8-1

November 12

3:30 PM ET

ESPN

Now: Clemson 76.2% Then: Clemson 84.9%

The Tigers win probability dropped 8.7% after the Notre Dame loss.  Let’s not forget that Louisville is on a four-game winning streak and hasn’t lost since their mystifying, last-minute loss to Boston College.

Clemson’s nation’s best 38-game home winning streak is on the line.

Next up, the Miami Hurricanes.

Matchup

Miami Hurricanes

4-5

Clemson Tigers

8-1

November 19

Now: Clemson 92.0% Then: Clemson 90.9%

Everything is relative as the old saying goes and if you think Clemson has problems, Miami is coming off a 45-3 shellacking at the hands of Florida State, a loss that was so bad that Clemson’s win probability actually increased ever so slightly.

This game, too, is in Clemson, but opponents have scored 90 points in the last two Miami home games.  Yikes.

And, of course, the rivalry game.

Matchup

South Carolina Gamecocks

6-3

Clemson Tigers

8-1

November 26

Now: Clemson 87.7% Then: Clemson 88.5%

This one moved ever so slightly in the Gamecocks favor, and I use that term lightly, because the move was less than a full percentage point and the Tigers are still expected to win close to 88% of the time in this situation.

Clemson football is heavily favored in its final three games

After what we saw Saturday, it’s hard for me to put the probabilities of a Clemson win at these high numbers, but perhaps that’s an emotional reaction and I’ll feel differently after Saturday’s game.

That said, Notre Dame presented unique challenges (on the road, huge, physical team, for example) that none of the Tigers opponents ahead will present.

But the Tigers have challenges of their own and it’ll be interesting to see how they respond Saturday afternoon in Death Valley.