Clemson Football: Predicting the first CFP rankings

The Top Four

1. Georgia: The Bulldogs are first in the AP Top 25, they have one of the better resumes in the nation, and they are the defending champions. Results from 2021 aren’t supposed to matter, but they do. The committee is only human, and they trust some programs more than others because they have seen them be successful before.

2. Tennessee: The Volunteers are the biggest surprise of the season. Their sensational win over Alabama, combined with a thoroughly convincing win over a Kentucky team that had been ranked most of the season has gotten a lot of attention. The resume is good, and the eye test is too. Oh, and they play Georgia next week. Ca-ching!

3. Ohio State: Ohio State has had the best eye test of the season. All they were missing was a good win to make the case that they had been tested in some way. The opening game against Notre Dame was supposed to help that, but it has fallen from importance as the Irish have struggled. The Buckeyes finally got a road test against a Top 25 opponent, and while they weren’t impressive in the first half, they were dominant in the second half and won the game convincingly. The resume is important, but it isn’t the only thing considered.

Rubbing the Rock predicts Clemson football will be in top four of the initial College Football Playoff Rankings

4. Clemson: Criticism of the Tigers has been coming from pundits who are dismissing their ranked opponents and judge Clemson’s eye test to be unconvincing. This is disappointing when it comes from a pundit who has been a close observer of the committee over the years and knows they value resumes. The catch for Clemson? I don’t think Syracuse will be ranked by the committee, which means they will only consider the Tigers to have two ranked wins. They won’t devalue a ranked win on the road, nor will they devalue winning four games away from Death Valley.

And the first two out are:

5. TCU: Trust me, they aren’t No. 5 by much, and frankly I wouldn’t be shocked if they do beat out the Tigers for a spot in the top four. TCU has been stellar this season and is the only unblemished team in the Big 12. An undefeated Power Five champion has never been left out of the playoffs, so TCU and Clemson are both in the same position – just win.

6. Michigan: While they have a lot of fans among AP voters and pundits, the committee will have to parse the qualifications of the top teams, and the lack of road opponents will catch up with Michigan. It’s not a concern for Michigan though, because all the undefeated Power Five teams can find a way into the top four if they run the table. To be the man, you have to beat the man.