Clemson Football and the mystery of the shrinking spread

Maybe the sharps know something we don’t?

Sharps aren’t foolish with their money. Most of them handle their betting in a very business-like way. If you know anything about decision-makers in businesses, you know most of them don’t wing it. They want to base their decisions on information, not hunches or guesswork. Sometimes, business people maintain relationships with contacts simply to get information about competitors and customers.

Sharps maintain contacts and networks in the sports world too, and sometimes they get information before others. Often, this information can be about injuries. Going into last weekend, there was a lot of speculation publicly about the health of Kentucky’s Will Levis, and how his possible absence might impact the game. I think that several sharps knew more than the rest of us about Levis’ status.

Two things are going against this theory, however. Oddsmakers have contacts and networks too. If the sharps knew something, then it seems logical to think the books knew something too.

Additionally, all the feedback we have heard this week indicates that most of Clemson’s injured or sick players are back. Brian Bresee is back on the depth chart. Sheridan Jones is back too, as well as several others who have missed time over the past three weeks. From the fan’s perspective, Clemson appears to be getting healthier.

I must admit that Coach Swinney, the staff, and the players have become adept at keeping things secret until game day, so we can’t ignore the possibility that we are still in the dark about something, but it doesn’t seem likely.

This is what some bettors call a ‘rat line’. It’s a line that is not in the range anyone expects, but no one can seem to put a finger on the reason. Even on the road, a team ranked 4th in the AP Poll should be more than a 3.5-point favorite against an unranked opponent.

There is a rat here, and I think I have discovered the culprit.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change