A quarter of the season is in the books for Clemson Football, and most of the other teams in the FBS as well. It’s hard to believe that it can go by that quickly, but with only twelve regular season games, time flies. It’s also hard to believe that we can actually know as little about some of these teams as we do after a quarter of the season has passed.
This time of year, we mainly have the AP and Coach’s polls to give us an idea of where teams stand because the College Football Playoff committee doesn’t release their initial rankings until November 1st.
Why does the CFP wait so long? The committee puts a lot of weight on resume and prefers to rely on the eye test as little as possible. With most teams playing only three games, the bulk of the best matchups are yet to come. To rank teams now, you have to put a lot of weight on the eye test.
Not every team has been taking it easy this season. Some of them aren’t afraid to play teams on the road (cough..Ohio State..cough). Some of them aren’t afraid to schedule Power Five programs (cough..Michigan..cough).
Coach Swinney’s said it simply:
"“I don’t think anybody knows who anybody is right now after three ballgames. I know the rankings and all that stuff – we’re wherever, a top-5 team, but that’s all based on past success. It really is at this point. And that’s great to have some street cred if you will. You have to go earn it. So that’s what we’re in the process of trying to do.”"
What would happen if we put the kind of weight on resume now that the committee puts on resume in November? What if we gave the praise to teams that win road games against Power Five programs or beat teams currently ranked in the Top 25 instead of beating up on lower-tier opponents at home? The rankings would look drastically different.
Let’s look at the AP Top 25 to see how they would fair if we scored their resumes instead of using the eye test. I looked at each team’s record and gave them a weighted score based on whether they won or lost against the Top 25, Power Five, Group of Five or the FCS, and whether it was at home, on the road or at a neutral site.
Is it perfect? No, but it gives us an idea.