Clemson Football: Go long! Signs of hope on the long ball

One of the things that has been missing from the Clemson football offense recently has been the ability to throw the ball down the field the way the Tigers did with Deshaun Watson and Trevor Lawrence at quarterback.

The fans long for the days of the beautiful spirals landing in the arms of Mike Williams or Tee Higgins.

In 2021 D.J. Uiagalelei completed only 30.5% of his passes (39.0% when adjusted for drops) of over 20 yards with 5 touchdowns and 3 interceptions.

With all the requisite caveats about small sample sizes and the defenses which Uiagalelei has faced in the first two games of 2022 acknowledged and understood, the numbers imply there should be some hope for improvement in this area this season.

Uiagalelei is 5 for 9 for 141 yards per profootballfoucus.com through the first two games of the season, which includes Georgia Tech and FCS Furman.

Included in the incompletions was a drop, so theoretically Uiagalelei should be 6 of 9 on the deep ball to date, but there’s another number buried in the minutiae that interests me more.

That number is 16.7% and that’s the drop rate on these long passes.  While there’s no specific category for percentage of long passes on target, simple deduction gets me to 6 of Uiagalelei’s 9 passes being on target, since 1 divided by 6 is 16.67%.

I would argue that 6 of 9 passes of 20 or more yards being on target is a) an improvement and b) reason for optimism moving forward.

We also should recognize that completing passes over 20 yards is not a one man operation. The receiver has to be in the right place and the line has to block in a way that allows the quarterback time and the receiver time to run the route.

The Clemson football offense recently has struggled to throw the ball down the field the way the Tigers did with Deshaun Watson and Trevor Lawrence at quarterback, but there is hope in the early numbers

Yet all we hear about is the quarterback’s completion rate.

I’m not here to tell you D.J. is without fault, especially in 2021 and he’s admitted that himself.  I am, however, pointing out that while the sample size is small and the opposition not at the highest level, there has been demonstrable improvement both on paper and when you use your eyes.

This two game sample doesn’t matter in the long run – this improvement has to come through in the big games for D.J. to overcome the legacy of his 2021 season, if that’s even possible.