Clemson football has generally been ranked in the top 4 of most preseason polls and power rankings, though there are some outliers.
One of the more recognized measures is Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings, which is a power rating that’s billed as a tempo and opponent adjusted measure of efficiency.
Connelly released his final preseason projections Sunday and the top 5 look like this:
- Alabama
- Georgia
- Ohio State
- Oklahoma
- Clemson
The Tigers are in a virtual tie with Michigan, but listed 5th and the Wolverines are 6th.
Clemson had been 6th in the May edition of the rankings.
I’m not terribly surprised at Clemson being outside of the top 4, but I am surprised at who is above them, namely Oklahoma.
Most prognostications I’ve read question whether Oklahoma will win 9 games and many believe that’ll be a “good season” for Brent Venables first edition of Sooners. Deductive reasoning tells me someone has to be way off – either Connelly by projecting the Sooners as top 4, or the folks projecting 9 wins.
This is a math based algorithm, so it doesn’t project specific wins and losses on the schedule when predicting 9.6 wins for Clemson overall and 6.4 ACC wins.
Needless to say the Tigers aren’t going to win 9.6 games, but that’s how Connelly’s rankings work.
For me, it’s not about the number of projected wins and losses in this formula, but more about the ranking, because theoretically you would only lose to the teams above you and there are no teams on Clemson’s schedule currently ahead of them, though Notre Dame is only .4 behind the Tigers (and Michigan) at number 7.
While Connelly has the Clemson offense 39th, which would definitely be an improvement over 2021, the Tiger defense is the best in all the nation by this system.
Clemson football has a higher SP+ Rating than any of it’s 2022 scheduled opponents
As the ratings currently sit, Clemson is projected to lose to Oklahoma by 1, Ohio State by 8, Georgia by 9 and Alabama by 11.
Just for kicks, lets look at Clemson’s opening opponent Georgia Tech and it takes a while to find the Yellow Jackets on this list, down at number 87. Comparing Clemson and Tech’s power ratings you come up with a 26.9 point difference, more than the current spread of 21 points.
I love power ratings like this because of their objectivity and in some ways there specificity and the fact that power ratings don’t use the words “always” and “never” as humans tend to do.
Power ratings aren’t everything, though and should be seen as just another tool in your arsenal when figuring out who’s likely to beat who.