Clemson football: Tigers can win with DJ Uiagalelei

Can Clemson football win big with D.J. Uiagalelei at quarterback?

439 passing yards. The third best single game mark in Clemson history.

That was DJ Uiagalelei’s second start in his young career. The five-star recruit from California battled to the bitter end in South Bend that night. The Tiger’s lost in double overtime to the Irish, but DJ’s performance was the bright spot for Clemson fans. The defense was depleted by injuries, both at key positions and on the depth chart. Clemson fans were excited to welcome Trevor Lawrence back from his COVID quarantine the next weekend, but it appeared that when DJ took the reins in 2021 that we would continue to see a high level of play from the quarterback position.

Reality did not match expectations. DJ’s start to 2021 was underwhelming. The offense had plenty of problems – the line didn’t gel, the running backs were young and inexperienced, the wide receivers weren’t playing well – but the lack of performance from the quarterback position was shocking. The guy who walked out on the field in 2021 didn’t look like the guy that entered the record books in South Bend in 2020.

It didn’t take Clemson Nation long to begin to question the abilities of Uiagalelei. Did we let a big passing yard total distract us from the fact that Clemson lost against Notre Dame, and needed a big comeback to squeak out a victory the week before against Boston College in Death Valley? Did we fail to recognize that receivers like Amari Rodgers and Cornell Powell were making the big plays, and not DJ?

It didn’t seem like Travis Etienne was having a big season in 2020, and there was a big turnover on a running play in both games DJ started in 2020. It seemed like he was struggling, but maybe he was also carrying the team much more that we realized? Maybe he was drawing so much attention from the defense that it opened a lot of opportunities that wouldn’t have been there otherwise?

DJ passed the eye test in 2020, but suddenly we realized he was only 1-1, and the one win required a big comeback by the Tigers. By mid-season 2021, he was only 4-4 against FBS competition all-time. What we hoped was a slow start was becoming the norm for Clemson’s next big star.

From that point on, DJ and the Tigers went 6-0, getting Clemson to the 10-win mark for the 11th season in a row.

What changed? Did DJ’s performance jump up the way so many had hoped? When you look at DJ’s stats for the season, he certainly had some games where he played better than others, but overall his numbers didn’t change significantly. He had just as many interceptions in the last six games as he did in the first seven, and threw one less touchdown.

Did other factors contribute to the success in the latter half of the season? Clemson probably played their best three opponents in the first half of the season. Both halves had a overwhelmed opponent (SC State and UConn). You can definitely argue the schedule was harder in the first half of the year. Health is another factor: injuries happened all season long, but you can point at the return of a player like Tyler Davis as impactful in the back half of the schedule. All of those reasons need to be considered.

This is where I see the biggest difference towards the end of the season: there were two games when the offense was particularly effective – at home against Wake Forest and on the road against South Carolina. Look at the difference for these key stats in those two games versus the balance of the 2021 season:

Average Points Per Game: Clemson averaged two touchdowns per game more against Wake Forest and South Carolina than they did the rest of the season.

Against Wake & SC:                             39

Against rest of opponents:               24.5

Average First Downs: First downs were up slightly in those two games over the balance.

Against Wake & SC:                             21

Against rest of opponents:               19.6

Average Total Yards:  Clemson had 107 more yards per game against Wake Forest and South Carolina than against every other opponent.

Against Wake & SC:                             449

Against rest of opponents:               332

Average Time of Possession: Time of possession increased by nearly four minutes.

Against Wake & SC:                             32:44

Against rest of opponents:               28:48

Was there one thing you can point towards to explain this increase in offensive success in those two games? Is there a key stat that can explain it? I think so: DJ averaged 12 fewer pass attempts per game against Wake Forest and South Carolina than he averaged the rest of the season.

Against Wake & SC:                             19

Against rest of opponents:                31

This didn’t make DJ better in these games. His completion percentage was down. His overall passing yards were obviously down.

What it did was make him & the offense more efficient. His yards per completion went up by five yards. The ground attack was able to power the offense. It sounds harsh to say it this way, but when the Tigers reduced DJ’s overall role in the offense, the productivity of the offense increased.

Obviously, this offensive game plan wasn’t something Clemson could have executed all season. As noted earlier, the running back room lacked maturity at the beginning of the year, partially because some guys were young & inexperienced, but also because some guys that should have been leaders didn’t fill that role. The younger guys had to grow up fast, and it wasn’t until the end of the season that they were ready to handle the burden of the offense leaning on them.

The offensive line wasn’t ready at the beginning of the year either. They were unsettled at center until Hunter Rayburn was able to return later in the year. Just like with running back, they had to count on young guys who hadn’t played a lot, and while they were talented, they weren’t ready.

The offense couldn’t rely on the combination of running backs and offensive linemen that weren’t ready for primetime early in the season. As they grew up before our eyes, the offensive staff learned to trust them more. The Wake Forest and South Carolina games represent the two opportunities when all the pieces were in place: all of the main running backs & offensive linemen were available, and the run game was at full strength.

Like we said, DJ wasn’t necessarily more accurate when the run game dominated, but he was more efficient. The defenses had to scheme to stop the run, which meant less pressure on DJ and the wide receivers. DJ had more time to find the openings, those openings were further downfield that usual, and the receivers were in a better position to bring in the ball.

I see this as the reason the 2022 Clemson Tigers can get to double digit wins, and perhaps improve their record over last season even if DJ Uiagalelei doesn’t improve over what we saw in 2021. We have seen a blueprint that includes the same DJ that can put up 30+ points per game against average defensive competition. They will be challenged by top-tier defensive units, but they don’t face that many opponents that were ranked high in 2021. NC State had the 21st best defense nationally in average yards allowed per game lasts season, and they will be very good in 2022, but Clemson also plays the Wolfpack in Death Valley. On Clemson’s 2022 schedule, the next best defenses in 2021 belonged to Syracuse (#26), Boston College (#38) and Notre Dame (#39).

With Clemson’s defense leading the way, the Tigers can win with Uiagalelei at quarterback

When you consider how good this Clemson defense can be next year, I think you can see why the Tigers aren’t likely to need a ton of points to have the advantage on the scoreboard in 2022. Except for NC State, the strength of the best opponents on Clemson’s 2022 schedule – Notre Dame, Wake Forest & Miami – will be offense.  The Tigers will be able to meet strength with strength in most games next season.

I must concede it won’t take too many injuries to the running back and offensive line units to throw off this ideal balance between running game and passing game. The positive feedback we have on Will Putnam’s performance at center in spring must carry over to games in the fall. Lastly, we need Clemson’s revised offensive staff to embrace what we saw against the Deacons and Gamecocks. We must hope if new offensive coordinator Brandon Streeter goes with a different philosophy that he has seen something in fall practice to justify it.

I am rooting for DJ to find that 2020 South Bend mojo and render everything I have just said completely useless with 400-yard games and a run for the Heisman. If his reality in 2022 is closer to the DJU we saw in 2021, that doesn’t mean Clemson can’t be successful. It just means they will need to rely on other weapons, and put less burden on DJ’s shoulders.