Clemson football: Are the ESPN Playoff predictions realistic?

As they generally do this time of year, ESPN has rolled out it’s top five most likely playoff combinations for the 2022 season and Clemson football is included in three of the five most likely scenarios, including the most probable one.

As a Clemson fan, I relish the theoretical idea of matching up with Alabama, Georgia and Ohio State, and as a Texan the idea of Clemson, Georgia, Ohio State and Texas is appealing, too.

But, as per usual, my mind wanders to the place of “How realistic is this for the 2022 Tigers?”

Of course, with the spring game fresh in my mind it’s easy to identify some of the Tigers shortcomings, both perceived and real, but it’s April and these guys have an entire summer (as does everyone else) to get better.

If last year proved anything, it’s that you can win without an elite quarterback, but if that’s the path you choose, or are dealt, then you better have a dominant defense.

Not good, not really good, but dominant.

Sitting here in April without the knowledge of injuries that are bound to happen, I believe the Tigers check that box.  The defensive line is deep and talented, the linebackers are athletic and active and despite losses on the backend the young guys appear to be ready to play.

We know the biggest question marks on the offense at quarterback and the offensive line, but I can’t help feeling like one area is being overlooked: Wide Receiver.

The 2016 team had Mike Williams and Hunter Renfrow. 2018 had Tee Higgins, Justyn Ross, and Amari Rodgers.

We’ve seen flashes from the current group, but not to the level of the guys mentioned above.  Some of that’s on the quarterback, but as we saw at times in 2021 and in the spring game, sometimes the passes have been perfect and they’re dropped.

I was hoping Adam Randall would be that guy, despite being a freshman.  I had visions of a  “Sammy Watkins light” freshman season for Randall.  That’s not going to happen now.

Randall may be back this season, but if he does they’ll be cautious with him and that’s as it should be.

Looking at Clemson’s schedule, it’s certainly doable, but there’s a road trip to Winston-Salem and a theoretically good North Carolina State team at home the next week and the first week of November finds the Tigers in South Bend.

Those three stick out to me right now.

The quarterback battle is likely to work itself out, the way it has in previous seasons and I’m hopeful the line gels and stays healthy enough to protect and make enough holes.

But I can’t help but go back to the wide receiver group and think the Tigers need more from that position to have a shot, a real shot, when the going gets tough inside against any of those teams listed (with the possible exception of Texas).

The return of Brannon Spector in the slot could be a huge help, though I’m not sure it’s fair to suggest he’s Renfrow 2.0.

The ability to make big plays by wide receivers means less chance for turnovers, drive killing penalties or any other mistakes on the offensive side.  It’s difficult to drive 80 yards in 12 or 13 plays for a reason.

On the other hand, the Tigers were closer than some realize last season and this isn’t the toughest schedule in the world.  There is no Georgia in the regular season, for example.

All that to say I think the 20% is a bit high until, and if, the Tiger offensive is able to consistently produce yards and points and to do that the Tigers are not only going to need more from the quarterback, but more from the wide receivers, too.

Given the defense the Tigers will field, the offense doesn’t necessarily have to be elite, but they also can’t score 10-13 points a game either.

Based on what we know today, I’d give the Tigers odds at 10-15% chance of making the playoff.