Clemson football: Explaining why three-way tie in ACC Atlantic doesn’t favor Tigers

There are many Clemson football fans who are beginning to pay special attention to the rest of the ACC Atlantic Division as we head down the stretch of the 2021 season in hopes that the Tigers might find a way to still come out divisional winners.

While it’s a long shot, a path still remains for Clemson to win the ACC Atlantic Division and compete in the conference title game for a sixth-straight season but a lot of things would have to fall in the Tigers’ favor.

There are two scenarios that would result in Clemson football winning the ACC Atlantic Division and they look like this:

Scenario 1:

1. Wake Forest beats NC State
2. Clemson beats Wake Forest
3. NC State loses to Syracuse or UNC
4. Wake Forest loses to Boston College

Scenario 2:

1. NC State beats Wake Forest
2. Clemson beats Wake Forest
3. NC State loses to Syracuse AND UNC

Why a three-way tie with Wake Forest & NC State doesn’t favor Clemson football

There are many Clemson football fans who have asked about a scenario in which Wake Forest beats NC State, but loses to both Clemson and Boston College. The Wolfpack win out and that would give all three teams a 6-2 conference record to end the season and they each would have the head-to-head tiebreaker over one another.

There’s a misunderstanding going around that the divisional winner would then be determined by rankings. That’s simply not true.

As a matter of fact, the ACC has an eight-step tiebreaker system to determine the winner and Tiger fans aren’t going to like it.

We don’t need to list all eight steps, though, because it only takes two to realize why this wouldn’t favor the Tigers.

Here’s a look at the ACC’s three (or more) tiebreaker policy and the two steps we need to be concerned with:

"(Once a team is eliminated from the tie, the tie-breaker procedures restart for the remaining teams. If the three (or more) team tie can be reduced to two teams, the two-team tiebreaker format will then be applied.)1. Combined head-to-head win percentage among the tied teams.2. Win percentage of the tied teams within the division."

So, what does this mean? The ACC is going to look at the combined head-to-head record of the tied teams. That would be a wash as all teams all are 6-2 with wins over one another.

The next step? Their divisional win percentage (or record).

Clemson has one loss in the division. If NC State lost to Syracuse, they’d have one loss in the division. If the Wolfpack lost to UNC, they’d have no losses in the division. If Wake Forest loses two games, they will both be in the division.

So, let’s say that NC State lost to Syracuse and both the Pack and Tigers had the same divisional record. Wake Forest would be eliminated based off their divisional record and we would go to head-to-head between Clemson and NC State, where the Wolfpack would obviously have the advantage.

The only way for Clemson to win the ACC Atlantic Division is for both NC State and Wake Forest to lose two games in their next three (one of those losses for Wake Forest would be head-to-head). Any other scenario isn’t going to get the Tigers to Charlotte.