Clemson football: The path to the ACC Championship isn’t impossible

The Clemson football team still has a chance of clinching the ACC Atlantic Division and getting back to the ACC Championship game, but the percentage-chances are dwindling quickly as we approach the end of the season.

If you had predicted at the beginning of the season that Clemson would be in third-place in the ACC Atlantic Division heading into the final three weeks, you’d likely have been laughed out of the room. Yet, here we are.

Here’s a look at the ACC Atlantic Division standings heading into the final three weeks of the season:

1. Wake Forest (5-0)
2. NC State (4-1)
3. Clemson (5-2)
4. Syracuse (2-3)
5. Louisville (2-4)
6. Florida State (2-4)
7. Boston College (1-4)

The path to the ACC Championship isn’t impossible for Clemson football

If Clemson is going to somehow advance to the conference title game, the Tigers are going to need some help in a big way.

Here’s a look at the two scenarios that would get Clemson football back to the ACC Championship:

Scenario 1:

1. Wake Forest beats NC State
2. Clemson beats Wake Forest
3. NC State loses to Syracuse or UNC
4. Wake Forest loses to Boston College

In this scenario, you’d have Wake Forest finish with two conference losses (Clemson & Boston College) and the Tigers would hold the tiebreaker. NC State would finish with three conference losses, going 1-2 in their final three games.

Scenario 2:

1. NC State beats Wake Forest
2. Syracuse AND UNC beat NC State
3. Clemson beats Wake Forest

If NC State beats Wake Forest, you have to have them lose their final two games.

Why a three-way tiebreaker doesn’t favor Clemson

We’re going to explain this in more detail here on Rubbing the Rock, but we just wanted to go ahead and point out that a three-way tie (ie. Wake beats NC State, loses its final two games and the three teams finish tied with a 6-2 conference record) doesn’t favor Clemson.

According to the ACC’s tiebreaker rules, this would basically come down to a divisional winning percentage between the three teams. Wake Forest would be eliminated by way of two division losses (Clemson & BC) and that would bring us back up to a two-way tie between Clemson and NC State.  NC State has the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Tigers and they would be awarded the division crown.