Clemson football: Exploring the paths to still winning the ACC in 2021

The 2021 Clemson football season has been one that most Tiger fans will want to quickly forget.

As we head into the last game of October, Clemson holds an abysmal 4-3 overall record with a 3-2 record in ACC play. The Tigers currently sit third in the ACC Atlantic Division standings and they’re going to have quite a bit of help to somehow end up winning the division with just over a month remaining in the regular season.

But, it’s still not impossible.

Here’s a look at the ACC Atlantic Division’s current standings:

1. Wake Forest (4-0)
2. NC State (2-1)
3. Clemson (3-2)
4. Louisville (2-2)
5. Florida State (2-2)
6. Syracuse (1-3)
7. Boston College (0-3)

The road to winning the ACC Championship for Clemson football in 2021

It feels like we’re back in 2005 writing this post, but for Clemson to somehow win the ACC Atlantic Division, the Tigers are going to need some help in the form of getting NC State and Wake Forest losses.

Here’s a look at the remaining ACC schedule for Wake Forest and NC State:

Wake Forest: vs. Duke, vs. NC State, @ Clemson, @ Boston College

NC State: vs. Louisville, @ Florida State, @ Wake Forest, vs. Syracuse, vs. UNC

Just a quick note: Wake Forest has a game against UNC, but it is not a ‘conference game’ as the two schools agreed to play a non-conference matchup. 

Clemson has to win-out, which would include a win over Wake Forest, and the Tigers would finish with a 6-2 record in the ACC.

What’s the easiest path for the Tigers to still win the Atlantic Division? 

1. You need Wake Forest to lose to either Duke or Boston College
2. You need Wake Forest to beat NC State
3. You need NC State to lose one other game to Louisville, FSU, Syracuse or UNC

If Wake Forest lost one more game including a loss to Clemson, the Demon Deacons would finish the year with a 6-2 record in conference, but the Tigers would have the tiebreaker. NC State, who would have two more losses in this scenario, would finish with a 5-3 conference record.

There is another scenario where Clemson could potentially still win the Atlantic Division in a three-way tie. Here’s what that would look like:

1. Clemson wins out
2. Wake Forest loses to Clemson, beats NC State, loses to either Duke or Boston College
3. NC State loses to Wake Forest, wins out

In this scenario, all three teams would have a 6-2 record in conference– presenting a three-way tie– and the ACC’s three-way tiebreaker procedures would come into play. At this point, it would be too early to tell who would get the nod in a three-way tie because of all the conference games remaining.

Finally, there is one (unlikely) scenario in which the Tigers could also win the Atlantic Division:

1. Clemson wins out.
2. Wake Forest loses to NC State & Clemson
3. NC State beats Wake Forest, but loses two games against Louisville, FSU, Syracuse or UNC.

In this scenario, the Demon Deacons would fall to 6-2 and Clemson would have the tiebreaker over them. NC State, who would’ve beaten both Clemson and Wake Forest, would still be third in the division standings, though, because they would have a 5-3 record.

It’s certainly not out of the realm of possibility that this team could still wind up in Charlotte, but at this point we think it’s much more likely that they’re in Charlotte later in December for the Duke’s Mayonnaise Bowl rather than in Bank of America Stadium competing for a seventh-straight ACC Championship.