We’ve talked about it all summer and said multiple times how every single goal is still on the table for Clemson football regardless of the outcome of the Georgia game this Saturday.
That being said, we’ve been asked numerous times on social media platforms if we see any scenarios where the Tigers could lose to the Bulldogs, win their remaining games and still miss the CFB Playoff.
On the surface, the answer is that is highly unlikely. That being said, there still is a chance.
Scenarios where Clemson football could win out after a UGA loss and still miss the CFB Playoff
Let’s be honest here, no matter what the reality is, the CFB Playoff committee and national analysts look down on the ACC as a conference.
You can see it in how ACC teams are treated in the top-25 rankings year-in and year-out by the committee.
Clemson doesn’t necessarily get a mulligan every single year like the SEC does. If Georgia loses to Clemson and wins out, the Bulldogs are in without question and there will even be talk about them holding the No. 1 overall seed depending on what the rest of the landscape of CFB looks like.
But, if Clemson loses, the Tigers aren’t necessarily afforded that same luxury.
If the Tigers go 12-1, the overarching belief is that they’ll still be in the CFB Playoff. But what if the PAC-12 had something to say about it? Would the committee consider a one-loss USC team with a win over Oregon, presumptively, over Clemson who may not have but one top-25 win?
What about if Georgia goes undefeated in the regular season and loses to Alabama in the SEC Championship game?
In that situation, you would have Alabama in as the SEC Champion and three spots remaining. If Oklahoma wins the Big 12– with a win over Iowa State, a potential top-10 team– and Ohio State wins the Big Ten– and we all know how much the committee loves the B1G– and then all of a sudden USC was in the hunt, you’d be talking about a situation where five teams are vying for three spots.
Georgia isn’t going to get left out if its only loss is to Alabama, so they’re in. Now, there are only two spots left. Ohio State’s not getting left out assuming they’re a one-loss conference champion. So, now it’s between Clemson, USC and Oklahoma for the final spot.
Even if you take the Trojans out of the picture, you’re still talking about analysts and committee members doing a side-by-side comparison of the Tigers and Sooners. That’s not what you want on Selection Sunday.
If you’re Clemson football, you don’t want to put anything in the hands of the committee. You want to control your own destiny and the only way you do that is by winning. The odds are very low that Clemson would get left out if it finished the year 12-1 with its only loss coming the UGA at the beginning the season, but the odds are still there.
This isn’t a ‘must-win’ for either team by any means, but to pretend that the Tigers are still firmly in control of their own destiny after a loss would be disingenuous.
It really comes down to this: If Clemson loses, there’s still a path to the playoff, but it has to do with pulling for other teams to lose and hoping you catch the mercy of the committee. If the Tigers win, though, it doesn’t matter what happens around the rest of the nation because they are in control of their own destiny.