There have been numerous reports over the last day that the ‘favored model’ for CFB Playoff expansion seems to be going to 12 teams.
The current CFB Playoff with a four-team field has basically been dominated by Clemson football and the Alabama Crimson Tide (with only two exceptions) since its inception back in 2014 and that trend doesn’t seem to be slowing down anytime soon.
Because of the desire to be included and the potential money that could be involved in television rights, it doesn’t seem that the four-team field will last much longer.
The problem with a 12-team field, though, is that you’re going to have teams with two losses- potentially even three- getting in with no question. It begins to diminish the importance of the regular season, at least in some ways and it brings up an interesting question.
How many 12-team CFB Playoffs could Clemson football have made under Dabo Swinney?
Clemson has already made six-straight CFB Playoff appearances under Dabo Swinney in the four-team era.
But what about some of these other teams that came before the playoff run began in 2015?
In 2014, Clemson finished with a 9-3 record and was No. 17 in the AP rankings. The Tigers were second in the ACC Atlantic Division and would have been grouped with about nine other teams with three losses for those approximate three at-large bids that would’ve still been open. That doesn’t seem promising, but the previous three years paint a little different picture.
Here’s a look at where Clemson stood after the final BCS rankings (before the National Championship) in 2011, 2012 and 2013:
- 2011: No. 15 (10-3 overall record with the ACC Championship automatic qualifier)
- 2012: No. 14 (10-2 overall record)
- 2013: No. 12 (10-2 overall record)
Following a win over Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship game in 2011, Clemson would’ve been given an automatic-qualifier in the CFB Playoff. If we look at those rankings, the Tigers likely would’ve been somewhere around the 10-12 seed and they would’ve played a team Kansas State, Wisconsin, Boise State or South Carolina in the first-round.
In 2012 and 2013, Clemson wouldn’t have had the automatic-qualifier and would’ve needed the committee’s help to garner an at-large bid.
The Tigers’ two losses in 2012 would’ve been to playoff teams (South Carolina & Florida State), but both the Gamecocks and the Seminoles had two losses. Having to include the automatic Group of 5 qualifier (a 12-1 Northern Illinois) might have left Clemson as the first team out. If the Tigers did make the 12-team field, we would expect that they would’ve been the 11th or 12th seed (depending on how the committee judged Northern Illinois) and they likely would’ve played a Kansas State, Georgia or Stanford in the first-round.
Finally, the 2013 season saw the Tigers finish as the No. 12 team in the country and that was before the big win over Ohio State in the Orange Bowl. With the only two losses being to No. 1 Florida State and No. 9 South Carolina, it definitely stands to reason that Clemson would’ve been in the field, but there were a lot of 10-2 teams- including Oklahoma, Missouri, Oregon, South Carolina and Oklahoma State- would would’ve vied for a spot.
If the Tigers made the field and we think they likely would have that season, they would’ve again been the 11th or 12th seed. That would’ve given them a likely matchup against Baylor, or potentially Ohio State depending on the committee’s seeding, in the first-round.
Of the three Clemson football teams who could’ve been potential playoff teams in a 12-team field, we would’ve given that 2013 team the best chance at making a potential ‘Cinderella run’ through the postseason.
What do you think, Tiger fans? Comment below!