The Clemson football team is considered one of the top contenders in the nation coming into the 2021 season, but there’s always the great debate every offseason: How would the Tigers fare if they didn’t play in the SEC?
SEC fans- especially Georgia and South Carolina fans- like to bring up their vaunted conference prestige as a talking point when they discuss team success, as if it actually matters.
They’ll say things like ‘Clemson would never make it to the CFB Playoff if the Tigers were in the SEC.’ Or, they say things like ‘If we were in the ACC, we would *never* lose a game.’
Let’s get past those ridiculous statements, though, and look at what Clemson football would do with an SEC schedule in 2021
Just for fun, we used the South Carolina 2021 schedule so that the Tigers would still have the Gamecocks and the Bulldogs on their schedule.
Please note, these are predictions based off what Vegas would think if these games were being played.
- vs. Eastern Illinois State (Favored by 30+)
- @ East Carolina (Favored by 30+)
- @ Georgia (Favored by 7)
- vs. Kentucky (Favored by 14.5)
- vs. Troy (Favored by 30+)
- @ Tennessee (Favored by 13)
- vs. Vanderbilt (Favored by 28)
- @ Texas A&M (Favored by 3)
- vs. Florida (Favored by 6)
- @ Missouri (Favored by 17)
- vs. South Carolina (Favored by 25)
So, taking South Carolina’s schedule, Clemson would be favored in every single game it played.
For those complaining about the Georgia line, the opening line for that game is actually the Tigers -10. We gave the Bulldogs three points since it would be on the road and you could even go a little further, but the overall result is still the same: Clemson is going to be favored.
On that schedule, the Tigers would have three games where they weren’t favored by double-digits and it would be Georgia, Texas A&M and Florida.
Even if they lost one of those, they’d still be in the SEC Championship game and would still be a lock for the CFB Playoff if they beat Alabama in Atlanta.
If they ran the ‘gauntlet,’ they’d be in regardless of the outcome of the SEC Title game because teams in that conference get special treatment and are given the benefit of the doubt because of their SEC patch. That makes things a little easier, by the way.
Regardless, the fact still remains: Clemson football would be favored against every single SEC team this season except for Alabama, which would be a slight advantage to the Tide or a pick ’em.
No matter what you think about Clemson or the biases you hold against the Tigers, the truth is that Clemson is a legitimate CFB Playoff power for a reason and it has nothing to do with schedule strength or conference. It has everything to do with the talent and culture that has been built by Dabo Swinney.