Could there be a shakeup in the top four of the College Football Playoffs Poll for the second week of the rankings?
Last week, No. 3 LSU had a short stint in the top four after a 29-0 loss to No. 1 Alabama and No. 5 Michigan moved to fourth with a convincing 42-7 win over Penn State.
This week, it is almost safe to say that No. 4 Michigan(8-1) will beat Rutgers(1-8) today and, at least, remain in the fourth spot on Tuesday.
Everyone else in the top four, could be challenged to remain undefeated.
No. 1 Alabama(9-0) will be at home against No. 16 Mississippi State and its No. 6 defense. LSU had a good defense too but the Bayou Tigers gave up 576 yards to The Tide. Mississippi State is better against the run(No. 18 vs No. 50) and the pass(No. 7 vs No. 44) than LSU but like them, their offense may struggle against Bama’s 11th ranked defense. In road losses to Kentucky and LSU and a home loss to Florida, the Bulldogs scored a total of 16 points.
No. 3 Notre Dame(9-0) appeared to be on their way to a win over Florida State and a 10-0 record until starting quarterback Ian Brook hit the injury report. Now, enter former starter Brandon Wimbush who led the Irish to a 3-0 start before Brook supplanted him as the starter after the Vanderbilt 22-7 victory.
Brook’s presence has improved Notre Dame’s passing game and FSU struggles against the pass, yielding 282 yards per game. Wimbush is an excellent running quarterback and he adds to a rushing attack that averages 181 yards per game.
Can FSU’s 17th ranked rushing defense(111 ypg) force Wimbush to pass the ball?
If Notre Dame can’t run the ball, FSU has a chance. The Seminoles can also pass to the ball(283 ypg) but must find a running game(76.9 ypg) to pull off the upset.
No. 2 Clemson(9-0) has the toughest game of the top four this week. No. 17 Boston College is on a three-game winning streak with wins over Louisville, Miami and Virginia Tech.
Besides dealing with a College Game Day home crowd, the Tigers will have to adjust to winds, rain and cold temperatures. The weather could affect the passing game for both teams and an emphasis on running the ball could be the theme of the night.
In past years, BC has been among the top rushing defenses in the country, but not this season. The Eagles are ranked 55th and give up an average of 151. 8 ypg compared to the Tigers 90.4(6th). In games against Temple, Wake Forest and N.C. State, they gave up rushing totals of 191, 298 and 225, respectively. Of those games, only the N.C. State game ended with a loss. In the three-game winning streak, they held Louisville to 47 yards, Miami to 155 and Virginia Tech to 111. If the game does indeed become a game in the trenches, then both teams will have to stop an offense that averages more than 200 rushing yards.
Clemson averages 265.3 ypg, which is fifth in the country and BC averages 225.6(23rd).
The Tigers will have to do a better job of getting A.J. Dillon, the ACC’s second leading rusher, on the ground than they did with N.C. State’s Reggie Gallaspy. Gallaspy(5-foot-11, 225 pounds) rushed for 59 yards on nine carries with an average of 6.6 yards per carry. Dillon, a 6-foot-0, 245 pound junior, is nursing an ankle injury but will play tonight. He will likely be a workhorse tonight. He had a combined 56 carries and 249 yards in wins over Miami and Va. Tech.
If either team can’t run the ball and have to rely on passing and defend the pass, then Clemson has the better passing offense(272.7(29th) vs 214.6(83rd)) and passing defense(178.8(18th) vs 221.8(56th)).
Both teams protect their quarterbacks well and get after the opposing quarterbacks. Clemson has allowed 12 sacks on the season and has 32 sacks while BC has allowed 14 and made 28 sacks.
Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence will need protection against defensive ends Wyatt Ray and Zack Allen who have combined for 14.5 sacks this season. The offensive line must maintain their blocks and give him time to dissect an Eagles defense that has 14 interceptions.
There are a few questions to be answered tonight.
Will BC give the Tigers a game? Can Mississippi State score on Bama? Are the Seminoles capable of getting a big road win? And at the end of the night, will the Michigan Wolverines be able to anticipate a rise in the CFP rankings?
Clemson at Boston College is a prime time matchup at 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ABC.