Today is sort of bittersweet. This will be my last “By the Numbers” article for this Clemson football season. I’m so mixed up with emotions leading up to this game, while I can’t wait for it to get here, I don’t want to see it end. If I could press a fast forward button to Monday at 8pm, I’d do it. Yet when I get there, I want to press the pause button. I don’t think a lot of us grasp what is happening here in the moment. The Clemson Tigers are playing for the National Championship for the third time in 35 years. It just so happens, two of those championship game appearances are in back to back seasons. The sheer rarity of that is astonishing.
Hold on to these next few days Tigers fans, we are currently living in the glory days of Clemson football. What a ride it’s been! Let’s examine the National Championship Game: By the Numbers.
Defense, defense, defense. They say defense wins championships, offense sells tickets. The old adage couldn’t be more true. When the Alabama Crimson Tide takes the field at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida on Monday night, they’ll be running the #1 defense in college football across that manicured playing surface. The numbers that this Bama defense has put up this
season is amazing. It’s PlayStation numbers. How a single defensive unit, that sent seven players to the NFL last season, improved its overall numbers is mind-boggling. Last season, the defending National Champions gave up a gaudy 75.7 yards rushing per game. That’s just ridiculous. What is even more ridiculous is that this years version of the Bama defense improved on those numbers. Bama gives up 62 rushing yards per game this season. No body has established any resemblance of a running game against them. Ole Miss ran for 101 yards, and Texas A&M rushed for 114 yards. That’s the only time, in 14 games that Bama has given up 100 or more yards on the ground. As if that’s not enough, Bama has scored 16 non-offensive touchdowns this season. Whether it’s been punt returns, interception returns, or fumble returns for touchdowns, the Bama defense finds a way to put points on the board. Senior linebacker Ruben Foster is the team leader in tackles with 103 on the season. He also has 12 TFL and 4 sacks on the season. Everyone knows about Jonathan Allen, the standout, highlight reel defensive tackle (63tkl 15TFL 9.5sks) he’s recovered 3 fumbles, and scooped and scored on two of those. The backend of the Bama defense is the only spot on the field that in my mind, isn’t as good as last year. You hear about the interception returns for touchdowns, but the overall production is down from a year ago. Don’t get me wrong, it’s not like those guys are scrubs, they are legit 4 and 5 star athletes back there, but in all honesty, Clemson’s wide outs will have a talent advantage over the Bama defensive backs.
Speaking of the Clemson offense. What a year it’s been. Watson surpassed the 4,000 yard mark for the second consecutive season (4,173yds 38TDs 17Int) you have a thousand yard rusher in Wayne “The Train” Gallman (214-1,087yds-16TDs) and a thousand yard receiver in Mike Williams (90-1,267yds-10TDs). From a numbers stand point the Clemson offense looks like a three-headed monster. However, unless you are just looking at numbers, if you haven’t paid close attention to this years Clemson offense, it’s much more than a three-headed monster. It’s more
like a seven headed monster. Deshaun Watson has seven legitimate targets to choose from on any given play, and every single one of them will be playing in the NFL. Artavis Scott just set the all time career receptions record at Clemson. He’s caught 73 balls for 608yds and 5TDs this season. Field stretcher Deon Cain, who didn’t even play in last years National Championship game, is Mr Touchdown (33-630-9) and averages 19.9 yards per catch. Hunter Renfrow, Jordan Leggett, Ray-Ray McCloud, all future NFL players, all will be wearing Orange Monday night.
Can Clemson protect the ball? That will be a HUGE key in this game. Can Clemson win or at least break even on the turn over battle? That will go a long way into the outcome of this game. Watson will also have to be, Watson. His scrambling ability, his ability to extend plays when protection breaks down, his finding yards when there are no yards to be found. Watson is the X-factor in this game.
Bama averages 39.4 points per game. A little misleading if you equate offensive scoring to the total points for the season. The Tide defense and special teams added a hefty portion to that overall score total. Derrick Henry won the Heisman behind a 2,200 yard and 28TD season last year. Bama has not filled that void so far this season. Leading rusher Damien Harris (141-1,013-2) is a far cry from the bruising style of Henry. Yet, the Tide keeps clicking right along. Bo Scarbough had is coming out party versus Washington in the Chic-Fil-a Peach Bowl. He scampered for 180
yards and masked a terrible game by Bama’s true freshman QB Jalen Hurts. Hurts is the teams second leading rusher with 891yds and 12 touchdowns. On the season Hurts has thrown for a completion percentage of 64.7% 2,649 yds 22TDs and 9Ints. Those numbers don’t necessarily scare you, however, those can be misleading as well. Bama has played exactly one game this season that was a one possession game. Meaning, they have won every game this year by at least 10 points, with the exception of the Ole Miss game, which Bama won by 5 points. When you’re up big, you don’t throw the ball. At least, Saban doesn’t. Will they have to throw against the Clemson defense to be successful?
Maybe the better question is can they be successful throwing against the Clemson defense? Will Hurts have time to find a receiver down field versus a crazy good Clemson pass rush. JT Barrett from Ohio State probably needed an ice bath after the Fiesta Bowl. The Tiger front seven harassed, hit and pressured Barrett all night. So much so that the OSU offense never snapped the ball inside of the Clemson red-zone. Impressive. The theme for Clemson’s defensive success this season has been getting pressure on the QB, establishing a new line of scrimmage, playing in their opponents backfield. When they do that, they win, usually big. The combo of Clelin Ferrell, Carlos Watkins, Dexter Lawrence and Christian Wilkins has been deadly. The Clemson front four has combined for 193 tackles 46 TFL and 27 sacks on the season.
The good news doesn’t stop there Tiger fans. Clemson’s two starting linebackers, Ben Boulware, and Kendall Joseph have 110 and 102 tackles respectively. If Van Smith logs seven tackles Monday night, this Clemson football teamwill have three defenders to log over 100 tackles on the season.
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That’s significant. In the Swinney era, there has never been two tacklers with over 100 tackles in the same season, much less three. OJ Howard, Alabama’s tight end, had a career game against the Tigers in last years National Championship game. This will be a key match-up again in this rematch. Dorian O’Daniel doesn’t get enough credit on the Tiger defense. He plays fast, he hits hard and he can cover anyone. He’s the perfect linebacker/safety hybrid for a Brent Venables defense. O’Daniel will be able to cover any running backs or tight ends that Bama will try to use on short or underneath routes. That’s a big check mark in Clemson’s favor defensively.
I know what my gut tells me. I know what my brain tells me and I know what my heart tells me. So logically, I’m trying my best to come up with a scenario that will make this game an instant classic. A game that the four letter network will be replaying decades from now. However, I just can’t put that scenario together. The time is now, the moment has arrived. CLEMSON WILL WIN the College Football National Championship Monday night and I don’t think it will be close. Clemson will win the turnover battle. Clemson will shut down Bama’s offense. They will make Hurts throw the ball and that will play right into Venables game plan. Deshaun Watson will have his farewell party and when the confetti falls, Tiger Nation will rejoice well into Tuesday morning.
CLEMSON 28 – BAMA 10
Thanks for reading and sharing my articles this football season. Stay safe, paint Tampa Orange and GO TIGERS!