College Football Playoff: The Fiesta Bowl by the Numbers

If you’re wondering who is hot right now in college football, it’s not hard to figure out. Clemson, Alabama and Ohio State are the only teams in the country to punch multiple tickets to the college football playoff. Bama of course, has been each of the three seasons the CFP has been in existence, and won the Natty last season. Ohio State snuck into the first playoff and won it all. Then there’s Clemson. Little ole Clemson, with six straight 10 win seasons (remember when 10 wins seemed impossible) has cemented itself as an elite force in college football. Clemson will make its second straight appearance in the CFP when it takes on Ohio State, Saturday December 31st at 7pm in Glendale, Arizona. The Fiesta Bowl has seen some really fun games in its history. The National Championship game last season was in Glendale and saw a great game come down to the final whistle as Clemson fell just short to Alabama. Boise State was victorious with a bag of tricks against a powerhouse Oklahoma team in the Fiesta Bowl. That of course was during the BCS era of college football. The Fiesta Bowl has hosted seven National Championship games and a host of other thrillers. The 2012 Fiesta Bowl with (4) Stanford vs (3) Oklahoma State was a fun game. Ok St won 41-38 in overtime. Texas beat Ohio State 24-21 with 16 seconds to play in the 09′ Fiesta Bowl. And maybe, arguably, the best college football game ever played, happened in January of 2003 when Ohio State beat Miami in double overtime to win the Natty 31-24. As you can see, the Fiesta Bowl has hosted some of the biggest, most exciting games in college football history. On the last day of 2016, I expect much of the same. Let’s dive into the numbers of this year’s addition of the Fiesta Bowl, the first round of the CFP. Clemson versus Ohio State, by the numbers.

This is Clemson’s second ever appearance in the Fiesta Bowl. Conference tie-ins had kept the Tigers on the east coast for the most part, but honestly, until recently, the Orange Bowl was the ultimate destination. Presently, that’s not the case. The Tigers have been title chasing for the last couple of years and it’s sent them all over the country. Clemson comes into the contest ranked 2nd in the CFP Poll. The Tigers are 12-1 (8-1) and have been playing at a very high level since their November 12th loss to Pitt. The Tigers have averaged 44 points per game since that contest, just slightly over their season average of 40.2 ppg. The catalyst of the offense is Deshaun Watson. Shocker, right? The multiple award-winning QB is a two-time Heisman finalist, Davey O’Brien award winner, along with enough other awards to fill up the most impressive trophy cases. Watson is 31-3 as a starter and his leadership, character, and integrity is even more impressive than his stats and win/loss record. On the season DW4 is 329-487 for 3.914yds 37TDs and

15Ints. He averages 301.1 yds passing per game for a total QBR of 153.98. His 3,914 passing yards is good enough for 7th nationally. The one stat that sticks out this season regarding DW4 is his rushing numbers are dramatically lower this season compared to last season. The team’s total rushing numbers are down as a whole. Now whether that’s just how other defenses are playing them, or if it’s a personnel issue is a different debate for a different day. DW4 has 129 carries for 529yds and 6TDs this season. The Tigers rushing attack is spearheaded by back to back thousand yard rusher Wayne Gallman (196-1002-15). Overall the Tigers average 50 less yards per game rushing this season compared to last season. However, they average 40 more passing yards per game this season compared to last year. Either way you cut it, it’s put them in the same spot as they were a year ago, and that’s in the CFP with a chance to bring a Natty to Tiger-town. Maybe the deepest, most talented position on the roster is the Clemson wide receivers. Everyone knows and schemes against Mike Williams (84-1171-10), but its a pick your poison scenario for defensive coordinators. Double cover Williams and that will leave Deon Cain (32-621-9) who averages 19.4 yards per catch, in single coverage. Don’t forget to cover Mr. Consistent Artavis Scott (71-592-5). He’s the screen, jet sweep, inside slant specialist. There’s also a 6’6″ 260lb tight end to account for. Jordan Leggett (38-637-7). We haven’t even mentioned the X-factor. Hunter Renfrow (29-353-4)  can catch gnats with chopsticks and he always shows up with the Tigers need a big first down or touchdown. He only played in 9 games due to injury, but he’s 100% heathy and ready to contribute.  The Tigers have the fire power, and are looking to continue to play the mistake free brand of football they’ve employed the last month of the season. They’ll have to, because the Ohio State defense, is legit.

Urban Meyer, like him or not, is a smart guy and a very good football coach. He completely retooled his defense after the Orange Bowl loss to Clemson. The big run stopping Big Ten defense was good for conference play, but they lacked the speed from side line to side line that they’d need to compete nationally. This years edition of the Buckeye defense will look a lot different from what you’ve seen in the past. They are big, and they are fast. OSU only gives up 14.2 ppg. There’s not any glaring weaknesses on this defense either. They give up 117 yards per game rushing and 164.5 yards per game passing. That ranks them 3rd in the nation in overall defense. The

linebacker play of the Buckeyes has been one of their strengths. A familiar name, Raekwon McMillan, who chose OSU over Clemson a few years ago is the leader of this defense. He’s the leading tackler (87 tackles 5 TFL) and a complete player at LB. Jerome Baker and Chris Worley are also legitimate linebackers that get to play in space, partly because the defensive line play for the Buckeyes is so good. The OSU D-Line is led by junior Tyquan Lewis and freshman Nick Bosa. Combined they have 12.5 of OSU’s 26 sacks on the season. The strength of the defense is their secondary. Coach Meyer wanted a more man to man type of defense and that’s basically all they run. 19 interceptions on the season ranks OSU 6th in the country in picks. Malik Hooker, a sophomore defensive back has accounted for six of those 19 interceptions, and he’s returned three of those for touchdowns. Marshon Lattimore has four picks, and one pick six under his belt on the season. They will be trying to give the OSU offense a short field and extra possessions versus the Clemson offense. A tall task to say the least.

The Ohio State offense averages 42.7 ppg. Skewed numbers in my opinion. When you drop 77 on Bowling Green, 48 on Tulsa, 58 on Rutgers and 62 against Maryland, it helps the bottom line a great deal. When facing legitimate defenses like Wisconsin (30 pts), Michigan State (16pts) and Penn State (21pts) they’ve somewhat struggled. Those aforementioned defenses have stout run defenses, and running is what JT Barrett and the Buckeyes want to do. OSU ranks 9th nationally rushing the ball with 258.3 ypg, while they rank outside of the top 50 in passing yards at 221.2 per game. JT Barrett has completed 214 of his 346 pass attempts on the season for 2,428 yards, 24 touchdowns against only 5 interceptions. He’s a heavy run contributor as well with a team leading 194 carries and he’s 2nd on the team with 847 yards and 9 rushing touchdowns. Mike Weber is the team leader in rushing yards with 177 carries for 1,072 yards and 9 touchdowns. The third back that Clemson’s defense will have to account for is Curtis Samuel (91-704-8), who also

is their X-Factor guy. Samuel also has (65-822-7) receiving this season. The wideouts haven’t had a great season, but they have still been good enough to give OSU enough balance offensively to get them to the CFP. Behind Samuel, Noah Brown and Dontre Wilson have combined for about 700 receiving yards and 12 tds. Can the OSU offensive line open up the running lanes enough to make the play action pass work against the Tiger defense? That may be the story line of the entire game.

The Clemson defense has had its moments in the sun this season. Stops when they needed them, at critical times have been their forte. A dominate defensive line that lives in the opposing backfield is their real bread and butter. ACC rookie of the year Dexter Lawrence is a 340 pound monster. Big Dex has put up crazy numbers for a 18-year-old freshman. 58 tackles, 9TFL, 6.5 sacks, 6 QB pressures, 2 blocked kicks and a fumble recovery. Wow is the only word you can use to correctly describe Big Dex. His D-Line counterparts aren’t too shabby either. Christian Wilkins (44 tkl – 12 TFL – 3.5 sks) and Carlos Watkins (41 tks – 10.5 TFL – 8.5 sks) are just plain nasty. Their ability to disrupt the timing and running game of the OSU

offense is a huge factor in this game. We can’t write about defense without mentioning Ben Boulware. He’s a beast. He has that certain tick about him that makes you wonder if he’s coming in for a tackle, or if he’s going to rip your head off. He’s the leading tackler, and the emotional and vocal leader of the Tiger defense. Boulware has 105 tackles, 9 TFL, 4 sacks, 3 forced fumbles, and an interception on the season. He’s been burned a couple of times in pass coverage this season, but fortunately for the Tigers, OSU doesn’t have that explosive tight end that Boulware would be matched up with in one on one scenarios.

To sum up all of these numbers and to put my prediction out there for the world to see it comes down to a few key match-ups. Can Clemson’s 8th ranked defense get enough pressure and limit the running threat of OSU’s 20th ranked offense. Can OSU’s 3rd ranked defense limit the passing attack of Clemson’s 12th ranked offense. I think Clemson can, and will smother the OSU offense. I also think that Clemson can win this game, but only if Watson finds some running room for himself. Clemson is deadly when the run pass option is on the table for the entire game. If Clemson can get 50-75 yards out of Watson’s legs, and if they can make OSU throw the ball.. Tigers win, maybe even convincingly. First team to 30 points will be headed to Tampa.

Clemson 31 Ohio State 20