If you’ve followed my articles over the last 6 months you’ve probably noticed I’m kind of a stats junkie. I love finding different nuances, little tidbits that may be hidden during the fast pace of the game we all know and love. That will be the theme today as we take a look at the Tigers and the Noles, by the numbers, and all the little stats that may or may not be important during Saturday night’s contest.
The Tigers and the Seminoles have played every year since FSU joined the ACC in 1992. At that time, there was a huge gap in talent and it showed on the field. The Seminoles won that first meeting that pitted Ken Hatfield against the winningest coach in college football, Bobby Bowden. The next year, in 1993 the gap widened as the Noles took home the most lopsided victory in the history of the rivalry 57-0. The Tigers have since narrowed the gap, and in some cases, passed the Seminoles. The Tigers are 9-20 all time versus FSU. One of only a couple of teams to hold an all time winning advantage over the Tigers. The largest margin of victory that the Tigers have enjoyed was a 35-14 win in 2005. “Bowden Bowl VII” turned Death Valley into a frenzied ball of electricity as Charlie Whitehurst, Chansi Stuckey and James Davis had their way with the 17th ranked Seminoles.
Speaking of Bowden Bowls, I remember vividly the very first Bowden Bowl in 1999. It was the first time a father son duo had ever coached against each other in a major college football game. There must have been a thousand media members circling the two head coaches as they met at mid field prior to kick off. I also remember there being about 3 people to every seat that day in Death Valley. I still have the program dated November 12th, 1999 and it’s something that I’ll probably keep forever. The Tigers came up just short in that game, a 17-14 FSU win. FSU went 12-0 that season, and the Tigers finished 6-6.
Now on to this years match up. The 3rd ranked Tigers will travel to Tallahassee for the 16th time on Saturday night. The Tigers are 3-13 all time at Doak Campbell Stadium. 1976, 1989, and 2006 are the only years the Tigers have brought victories back from the Sunshine State. The winner of
this game has went on to win the ACC Atlantic Division each of the last seven seasons, and this game has held conference and national championship implications each of the last 5 years. This year is no different. The tides have somewhat changed this year however. The Tigers are the favorites, they are 7-0 and win in Tallahassee could prove to be their last big “test” this season, before the conference and possible college football playoffs begin.
The Tigers come into this game averaging 36.6 points per game, while only allowing 15.3 points per game. On the flip side of that the Seminoles are averaging a very respectable 34.9 points per game and allowing 28.9 points on defense. As you can see, through similar competition, Clemson’s defense has allowed on average two less touchdowns per game than their counterparts. The old saying goes, “defense wins championships”. We’ll see if that holds true Saturday night. Another stat that jumps out at me is Clemson and FSU are averaging almost identical yards per play throughout this season. 6.18 for the Tigers, 6.29 for the Noles. If Clemson’s defense gives up 6 yards per play for the evening against the Noles, it’s going to be a long night for our boys in Orange.
Another telling stat for the night will be tackles for loss. Clemson is averaging 9 TFL’s per game for the season. The Noles, 5.86. If this Clemson defensive line can get a push, create some havoc in the Seminoles offensive backfield, the Tigers chance for victory greatly improves. FSU held Clemson to a three year low in TFL’s last season when they played. The Tigers only had 4 TFL’s in last season’s 23-13 victory. So, as you can see, you can win without big TFL numbers, but it greatly improves your chances if you get into your opponents backfield early and often.
The elephant in the room when mentioning the Tigers this season is turnovers. Point blank period, if Clemson turns the ball over at the breakneck pace they did against Louisville or NC State, they will get ran out of the stadium. FSU is +6 in the turnover margin this season. Meaning, they have created 6 more turnovers, than they have given up. The Noles have taken the ball away from its opponents 15 times while only committing 9 turnovers this season. The Tigers on the other hand are even in turnover margin. 16 turnovers, 16 takeaways. If Clemson can hold on to the ball, play a clean game offensively, little to no drops, and no turnovers, they may put up some big numbers on the scoreboard.
Leading the charge for the Tigers is the man everyone knows, Deshaun Watson. His season stats look like this: 64% completion rate, 1950 yards 20 tds and 8 ints. DW4 is averaging 278.6 passing yards per game at this point in the season. The FSU signal caller, redshirt freshman Deondre Francois is completing 62% of his passes for 1876 yards 10 td’s and only 3 int’s this season. He averages 268 yards per game through the air. These play makers will have an impact on this game. Whichever offense line can keep their QB off his back will go a long way into deciding the outcome of this game. Rushing is another big stat for both teams. FSU has the upper hand so far this season as far as ground yards are concerned. FSU averages 212.8 yards per game, while their defense gives up 155.14 per game rushing. Clemson is way off of their 2015 season rushing average. Last season the Tigers averaged 223 ypg rushing. This year, only 168.4. Did the loss of Eric MacClain make that big of a difference? Either way, the Tigers are only allowing 132 ypg on defense. So something will have to give Saturday night.
In my opinion, turnovers and defensive penetration is the key for the Tigers. If the Tigers hold on to the ball, and establish a new line of scrimmage they will not only cover the three-point spread, they will walk out with a somewhat comfortable victory. However, that’s much easier said than done. The environment will be electric. The War Chant will be loud and continuous, until the Tigers snatch the momentum, which will better suit them if it happens early. FSU is a 2nd half team, so the Tigers killer instinct will be key as well. Get up big, early and keep the pressure on FSU. Then and only then will the Tigers be able to claim their first victory at Doak Campbell Stadium in 10 seasons.