Clemson is reeling, the eye test tells us. The computer, though, says the Tigers are about to offer a "rude awakening" to the Florida State Seminoles.
Ranked No. 24 in the latest USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll, Clemson (20-7, 10-4 ACC) heads into Saturday’s noon tilt at Littlejohn Coliseum aiming to brush away the memory of a winless road trip. Though a three-game skid — the program’s longest since 2024 — has caused some fans to hit the panic button, ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI) is still surprisingly bullish on Brad Brownell’s squad.
According to ESPN’s matchup predictor, the Tigers now have nearly an 87.8% chance of winning against the Seminoles.
So why mathematical optimism? Clemson’s top-flight defensive efficiency. On Wednesday, despite surrendering 85 points to Wake Forest, the Tigers continue to hold the 17th-best defensive rating in the nation.
Florida State (13-13, 6-7 ACC) sits at No. 85 in the BPI, a situation of struggling on offense where the team is more into volume than accuracy. FSU’s Robert McCray V, whose late-game work against Boston College ended with a 27-point masterpiece, will have to contend with a Clemson interior led by Jake Wahlin and Carter Welling, both of whom combined for 30 points in their last outing and are still key to protecting the Tigers with a top-tier defense.
As March Madness approaches, the ACC scene is getting more and more crowded. Despite such troubles recently, Clemson has remained a top-five player in the conference according to BPI tracking indices, and outpaced only by the "big three" of Duke, Louisville and Virginia.
ESPN BPI: ACC Top 5.
Duke (25.1).
Louisville (20.2).
Virginia (16.4).
NC State (15.6).
Clemson (15.1).
The analytical models can’t figure out emotion, which is the place where the Seminoles succeed. Former Clemson star Chauncey Wiggins has returned to his stomping grounds as FSU’s second-leading scorer (12.6 PPG). Wiggins has been the spark for FSU’s recent 5-2 run, helping the Seminoles regroup to .500 after a bumpy start to the winter.
For Clemson, the answer is obvious: avoid the slow starts that took their team out of rhythm — Wake Forest outpaced them 22-8 early — and exploit their 6–0 head-to-head winning streak against FSU.