DraftKings has installed the Tigers as a 2.5-point road favorite for the Nov. 29 rivalry showdown at South Carolina (noon, SEC Network). It’s a tight number that reflects both Clemson’s recent dominance in Columbia and the volatility of this year’s version of the Palmetto Bowl.
Clemson comes in at 5–5 overall and 4–6 against the spread, while the bowl-eliminated Gamecocks sit at 3–7 straight up and 5–5 ATS.
If you’re looking for a clean narrative between Vegas and the computers, you’re not getting it here.
Heading into the weekend, ESPN’s Football Power Index actually gives South Carolina a 57.3% win probability. That’s a pretty firm lean toward the Gamecocks, even as the oddsmakers shade the line toward Clemson by nearly a field goal.
Put another way:
Vegas thinks Clemson is slightly better on a neutral field and still the side to back as a short road favorite.
FPI thinks South Carolina is more likely to win the game outright, despite the Tigers laying points.
That tension is exactly what makes rivalry-week betting lines so interesting.
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The history around this number is loud.
Clemson is chasing a sixth straight win in Columbia, a run of dominance in Williams-Brice that has spanned multiple coaching staffs and quarterbacks.
South Carolina is trying to claim a third win in the last four games of the series overall, a reminder that the Gamecocks have landed some recent punches even in a Clemson-dominated era.
Last year’s meeting adds another layer. Clemson was also a 2.5-point favorite in Death Valley, and South Carolina stunned the Tigers 17–14. That upset — with the same spread — is going to be in every bettor’s head when they see this year’s line.
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Before the rivalry kicks off, both teams have business to handle.
South Carolina is a 24.5-point favorite at home against Coastal Carolina on Saturday (4 p.m., SEC Network).
Clemson hosts FCS foe Furman (6–5) in a 4:30 p.m. game on The CW, a matchup that currently doesn’t have a posted line.
Oddsmakers clearly expect the Gamecocks to handle their tune-up comfortably, while Clemson gets one last home shot to clean things up before heading to Columbia.
Neither result will drastically swing the rivalry line on its own, but style points, injuries and momentum coming out of the weekend could nudge that 2.5 either direction.
What The 2.5 Really Says
A 2.5-point spread is Vegas-speak for “we don’t trust either of you completely.”
Clemson backers will point to:
For now, Vegas says Clemson by less than a field goal. Everyone else — especially in this state — is about to spend the next week arguing why that number is too high, too low, or just flat-out wrong.