Trevor Lawrence didn’t just beat Patrick Mahomes on Monday Night Football — he caught the attention of oddsmakers across the country.
Following the Jacksonville Jaguars’ dramatic 27–24 win over the Kansas City Chiefs, Lawrence’s odds to win the NFL MVP saw one of the biggest spikes of the season, climbing from +7500 to +4000 at Fanduel.
That leap vaulted Lawrence to 12th overall on the MVP odds board, signaling that Vegas finally views him as a legitimate dark-horse candidate after Jacksonville’s red-hot 4–1 start.
Lawrence’s Breakthrough Performance
Lawrence’s performance against Kansas City wasn’t just about numbers — it was about timing and leadership. The Jaguars’ franchise quarterback engineered a final-minute drive, capping it with a game-winning rushing touchdown that sent EverBank Stadium into a frenzy.
On the season, Lawrence has completed 60.4% of his passes for 1,066 yards, six touchdowns, and five interceptions, while adding 25 rushes for 86 yards and two scores on the ground.
Those stats alone may not scream MVP, but his late-game poise and the Jaguars’ position atop the AFC South have turned heads in Las Vegas.
Mahomes Still in the Hunt
Despite the loss, Patrick Mahomes’ MVP odds actually improved — moving from +400 to +370. The three-time Super Bowl champion finished Monday night with 318 passing yards, one touchdown, one interception, and 60 rushing yards, including a rushing score.
Even at 2–3, the Chiefs are just a game out of first place in the AFC West, and Mahomes’ steady numbers — eight touchdown passes and over 251 yards per game — keep him firmly in the MVP conversation.
With wide receiver Xavier Worthy heating up and Rashee Rice expected to return in Week 7, Mahomes could make another surge as Kansas City stabilizes.
The MVP Race Tightens
Buffalo’s Josh Allen (+150) remains the MVP favorite, but Week 5’s fireworks from Mahomes and Lawrence show just how quickly things can shift. Eight different players are currently listed at +1600 or shorter, meaning the race is still wide open heading into midseason.
If Lawrence continues his upward trajectory — and the Jaguars stay in control of the AFC South — his Cinderella climb toward MVP contention may just be getting started.