By the numbers: What analytics say about Clemson vs. Penn State in Pinstripe Bowl

By the numbers: Analytics lean Penn State, but Clemson remains the betting favorite entering the Pinstripe Bowl.
Clemson football Head Coach Dabo Swinney speaks in a press conference before a Pinstipe Bowl practice in Clemson, S.C. Monday, Dec. 15, 2025.
Clemson football Head Coach Dabo Swinney speaks in a press conference before a Pinstipe Bowl practice in Clemson, S.C. Monday, Dec. 15, 2025. | Ken Ruinard / USA Today Co / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

By the Numbers: Clemson vs. Penn State (Pinstripe Bowl)

Game: Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Date: Saturday, Dec. 27
Site: Yankee Stadium (Bronx, N.Y.)
Kickoff: Noon ET
TV: ABC

Team Records

  • Clemson: 7–5
  • Penn State: 6–6

Betting Line

  • Spread: Clemson -3.5
  • Moneyline: Clemson -154 | Penn State +130
  • Over/Under: 48.5

Win Probability (Analytics)

  • FEI (BCFToys): Penn State 71.7%
  • SP+ (ESPN): Penn State 64%
  • FPI (ESPN): Clemson 34.7%
  • CFP Graphs: Clemson 48.6%

Projected Scores

  • FEI: Penn State 28.9, Clemson 20.5
  • SP+: Penn State 29, Clemson 23
  • CFP Graphs: Penn State 24.6, Clemson 23.8

National Rankings

  • SP+: Penn State No. 17 | Clemson No. 32
  • FPI: Penn State No. 17 | Clemson No. 30
  • FEI: Penn State No. 20 | Clemson No. 37

Unit Rankings (SP+)

  • Offense: Penn State No. 18 | Clemson No. 57
  • Defense: Clemson No. 24 | Penn State No. 32
  • Special Teams: Penn State No. 7 | Clemson No. 34

Key Efficiency Stats

Clemson defense:

  • 31% opponent conversion rate on 3rd/4th down (No. 8 nationally)
  • 2.69 points allowed per quality drive (No. 11)

Penn State offense:

  • 44.8% conversion rate on 3rd/4th down
  • 51.5% quality drive rate

Notable Edge

Special Teams: Penn State ranked No. 2 nationally in FEI efficiency

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