Clemson's home loss to Virginia Tech is one that will sting for a while. With a chance to improve to 5-2 on the season and 3-1 in ACC play, the Tigers could not get it done on offense in crunch time. At the very least, Tait Reynolds has stagnated at the midway point of his true freshman year. From the looks of it, Clemson's offense has completely hit the skids. No wonder nobody is backing the Tigers today.
According to the FanDuel Sportsbook, Florida State is now laying 6.5 points to visiting Clemson. The line opened with Florida State as a 5.5-point favorite. As a result, the moneylines are Florida State -220 and Clemson +180. You would need to wager $220 on Florida State to win $100, while a $100 bet on Clemson would now pocket you $180. The point spread has dropped from 51.5 to 49.5 points.
Clearly, this is telling us that the betting public has even less faith in the Clemson offense than what the bookmakers laid out for them. Again, this is all about getting an equal amount of money on both sides. Of course, Florida State is now projected to beat Clemson by the final score of 28-21.5. While Clemson did show it is capable of scoring 30 points in a game, that was against Charleston Southern.
Clemson is not built to keep pace with Florida State's offensive attack
The fact that Clemson is now more than a touchdown underdog at Florida State speaks volumes about the state of the Tigers' pitiful offense. Dabo Swinney called out his coaches during the halftime interview of the Virginia Tech game. While things did briefly get better, the offense regressed to the mean of perpetual mediocrity. Florida State is not a decent team, but it can still put up some points.
Against Power Four teams, Clemson is only averaging 18.2 points per game over the course of five contests. As for Florida State, the Seminoles are averaging 30.6 points per game against Power Four competition, also over the course of five games. The Florida State offense has eclipsed 30 points on five occasions this year. Their lowest scoring total in any game came against Louisville with only 20.
You see where the problem lies for Clemson, right? It is a mathematical issue. If Florida State scores 30 points, then the Clemson offense has no shot at matching the 'Noles. Florida State's biggest issues this year have clearly been on defense and in attempting to win games on the road away from Doak Campbell. Since it will be a home game for FSU and Clemson cannot score, this could get ugly.
As hard as it is to process Clemson now being a 6.5-point road underdog at Florida State, the math makes sense for the Tigers to find themselves even more up against it. Frankly, the only way Clemson can win this game is by dominating the Seminoles in time of possession to grind out a low-scoring affair. Sadly for Clemson, Florida State's worst point total would have beaten Clemson three times.
Florida State should not be favored by 6.5 points over most teams, but it makes sense over Clemson.
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