With the regular season set to begin, now is a perfect time to dive into some way-too-early bowl game projections. On3's Brett McMurphy shared a few highlights from his Week 0 projections on X. After rattling off his 12 teams that would make the College Football Playoff, he listed Clemson among the other games. He has the Tigers facing the Michigan Wolverines in this year's Duke's Mayo Bowl.
Unfortunately, Dabo Swinney's streak of winning 10-plus games at least once every two years could be coming to an end based on this projection. While the Duke's Mayo Bowl can be a heaping helping of fun, it is not the bowl game Clemson wants to be playing in. Frankly, Michigan probably doesn't want to be playing in it either. These are two of the handful of teams vying for playoff spots this fall.
While it may not signify a return trip to the playoffs for Clemson, it gives a range as to what McMurphy believes Clemson's regular-season record will be. Outside of the COVID season, all but one of the Duke's Mayo Bowl participants have had between six and eight wins. Mississippi State got there last year with a 5-7 record, but a strong APR because there weren't enough teams that were bowl-eligible.
My Week 0 College Football Playoff/bowl projections: OU at Texas, UNLV at Texas Tech, Washington at Miami, BYU at Indiana; Byes (Ohio St, Oregon, Georgia, Notre Dame). Others: Las Vegas: Bama-USC; Duke's Mayo: Michigan-Clemson; Cactus: Nebraska-UCF
— Brett McMurphy (@Brett_McMurphy) August 24, 2026
https://t.co/PRifBUnmBS
Clemson projected to face Michigan Wolverines in the Duke's Mayo Bowl
When looking at the record of every team Swinney has coached at Clemson, a few things stand out. From 2011 through 2022, Clemson won 10-plus games annually. This includes a dazzling 10-2 mark during COVID. While it started slow for him initially, Swinney got this thing rolling from 2015 through 2020. Clemson never lost more than two games at any point during that six-year run of dominance.
- 2008: 4-3
- 2009: 9-5
- 2010: 6-7
- 2011: 10-4
- 2012: 11-2
- 2013: 11-2
- 2014: 10-3
- 2015: 14-1
- 2016: 14-1
- 2017: 12-2
- 2018: 15-0
- 2019: 14-1
- 2020: 10-2
- 2021: 10-3
- 2022: 11-3
- 2023: 9-4
- 2024: 10-4
- 2025: 7-6
Although Clemson could still conceivably crash the College Football Playoff party out of the ACC, the Tigers weren't ranked to start this season. It was the first time since 2011 that had happened to Swinney's program. We can look at that one of two ways. It could be exactly what this team needs as a jumping-off point, just like it was in 2011, or it could truly be the beginning of the end for him here.
The truth probably lies somewhere in between. Swinney is an icon at Clemson. He will go down as the greatest head coach in program history. As one of four active head coaches with a College Football Playoff National Championship on his resume, he has earned the right to ride this out. However, even if Clemson is on the high end of Duke's Mayo Bowl participants, it is still not enough to get to 10 wins.
Right now, Swinney and his team can take McMurphy's bowl projection with a grain of salt. He believes they will be as good as they were last year, albeit with less talent than they had a season ago. However, this team is motivated, hoping to prove its many doubters wrong. While Clemson will have to earn its way back into the top 25, they are a solid ACC bounce-back candidate worth banking on.
It remains to be seen to what degree Clemson will use this middling bowl projection as motivation.
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